How Supply Managers See High-Tech Business
Staff -- Purchasing, 6/17/2004 2:00:00 AM
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U.S. factories cranked up output in May, goings-on supported by two key manufacturing indexes: PURCHASING magazine's business activity index in May was 73.4 and Institute for Supply Management's index was 62.8. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the gauge has been above 50 since June of last year. "Manufacturing activity has gone from being the U.S. economy's laggard to one of the driving forces behind the current recovery," says John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's Investors Service.
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U.S. consumer confidence declined in May for a second month in a row, confounding economists' more optimistic forecasts. The University of Michigan's final survey of consumer confidence for May showed its index falling to 90.2, its lowest point since October, from April's final reading of 94.2. "What's affecting consumer sentiment is the geopolitical news, which is quite negative coming out of Iraq," says senior economist Kevin Logan at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein. "But also, the rise in oil prices is of concern to consumers as it affects their pocketbooks directly and that surely had an impact."
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The U.S. economy grew a bit more quickly in the first quarter at a revised 4.4% annual rate rather than the 4.2% advance first estimated. Over the last four quarters, GDP—which measures total output within the nation's borders—has risen 5%, the strongest advance since 1984. A faster pace of inventory building was a big factor behind the upward revision to first-quarter GDP, with restocking adding three-quarters of a percentage point to growth. In addition, government spending and exports were slightly stronger than first reported.
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Canadian Pacific Railway is tying its fuel surcharges more closely to current fuel prices by changing its calculation base. The Calgary-based rail carrier now bases surcharges on the monthly average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The surcharge will be 2% of the freight charge when the monthly WTI average price reaches $24 a barrel and 4% when it reaches $27 a barrel. The surcharge will also increase by 0.4% for each additional dollar above $27 and will decrease by the same rates when WTI prices are reduced.
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Fueled by low interest rates, U.S. construction spending surged to a record high level in April, the Commerce Department says. Residential construction spending rose 1.2% to $520.7 billion in April. Public construction spending rose 1.7% in the month to a record $230.5 billion.
Tracking the high-tech economy
| Indicator | Period | Latest Period | Previous Period | Year Ago | % Chg/Yr Ago |
| *Industrial production of computers + communication equipment + semiconductors. |
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| Real GDP (B'96$,SAAR) | Q1 '04 | 11459.6 | 11262 | 10735.8 | 6.7 |
| Consumer spend, dur gds | Apr | 191.3 | 197.0 | 168.0 | 13.9 |
| Bus investment, equip | Q1 '04 | 920.8 | 897.3 | 864.6 | 6.5 |
| PC board book-to-bill (ratio) | Mar | 1.12 | 1.13 | 0.97 | 15.5 |
| Semi equip book-to-bill (ratio) | Apr | 1.14 | 1.09 | 0.90 | 26.7 |
| High-tech IP* ('97=100) | Apr | 437.9 | 430.6 | 348.3 | 25.7 |
| Emp cost index (6/'89=100) | Mar | 170.8 | 168.9 | 164.4 | 3.9 |
| Dur gds orders (B$, SA) | Apr | 195.3 | 197.0 | 168.9 | 16.6 |
| Consumer conf ('85=100) | May | 93.2 | 93.0 | 83.8 | 11.2 |
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