Delivery delays create leadtime, supply challenges
William Atkinson -- Purchasing, 12/9/2004 2:00:00 AM
After a couple of rather lean years, things are starting to look brighter for both bearings manufacturers and distributors.
"It has been a strong market in recent months, stronger than we have had for the previous couple of years," says Sarah Chuba, global market manager—heavy industries, for Timken in Canton, Ohio.
"Our business is very good," adds Paul DeBorde, co-owner of Bearing Distributors Inc. in Columbia, SC. "Things started picking up in early 2004."
But the upturn, while certainly welcome, has created pressing challenges for the industry in terms of supply, leadtimes, and prices.
Supply and leadtimes
"Supply is starting to get difficult, especially with some of the ball bearing and self-aligning bearing manufacturers," says DeBorde "Some of the deliveries are stretching out for months. On one everyday product we ordered, for example, we were told that delivery would be in May 2005."
Bill Shepard, marketing and e-business manager for BDI in Cleveland is experiencing similar problems. "We are seeing delays in deliveries from manufacturers, especially the big companies like Timken and SKF."
Why the shortages and leadtimes in a market that until a few months was sluggish?
Part of it can be attributed to global marketplace demands and the shortage of raw materials, especially scrap material, such as steel.
But, the other reason is that manufacturers were caught by surprise by the quick up-turn.
"As a result, there has been some lengthening of leadtimes from ourselves and some of our competitors," says Chuba.
Timken has tried to minimize that impact by breaking down individual customer needs into quarterly demand and altering production schedules, and by working with customers on forecasting. "Customers need to remember that, as their business picks up, a lot of their MRO products will be wearing out more quickly, so they need to remember that they will need to replace these more often than they did before," she adds.
Of late, the supply-demand problems have been starting to level off, says Shepard. But that doesn't ease his anxiety. "All it will take is another spike in demand, and we'll be back where we were in early 2004."
Rising prices
It's no secret that bearing prices are increasing "due to energy costs increases and increases in the price of steel," says Rick Opatick, president of the American Bearing Manufacturers Association in Washington, D.C.
Indeed, in the first quarter of 2004, there was a tremendous rise in the cost of scrap steel, says Timken's Chuba, with price increases particularly dramatic, and more than people expected.
(Timken tracks the cost of scrap steel on its website, www.timken.com. The normalized level over the last six years has been $115 per ton. The September 2004 price was over $400.)
As a result, the strategy, at this point, continues to be for manufacturers to raise prices for distributors, but add surcharges, rather than put into place actual price increases, for customers.
"Being a bearing and steel producer, we are well aware of decreases in steel supply and increases in steel prices," reports Chuba. Because of the fluctuations in steel prices, Timken has been imposing surcharges on its products to OEM customers and price increases to distributors. "The reason for the surcharge is to give customers the fairest view of what the cost of raw material is doing to the final price of the product," explains Chuba. In other words, the surcharge is related directly to changes in price, rather than estimates, as would be the case, if the company passed along price increases.
"We are not able to do this [logistically] on the MRO side for distributors," which is why , she says, Timken introduced graduated price increases for distributors, one at the beginning of the year, another at mid-year.
They're not alone in using that tack. "We got another price increase [of 3% to 5%] last week from one of our major vendors," says DeBorde.
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