No credit crunch--yet. New York's Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi has rolled out a new leading indicator of the credit cycle, dubbed the U.S. Credit Crunch Barometer. According to BTM analysts, a credit crunch will occur only after the barometer falls below 101 (Q1 1950=100). At latest read, it was just shy of 102, but falling. Upshot: "Based on our new indicator, we can conclude the U.S. economy is likely to see a further near-term slowdown in credit--albeit mild. A credit crunch is not currently present. And the economy continues to be on track for a credit crunch which--if history is a guide--may not develop for at least a year."
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