Leadtime low approaches
Staff -- Purchasing, 4/4/2002 2:00:00 AM
PURCHASING Magazine's Leadtime Index (1992=100) has risen for two consecutive months but, in so far as the LI is rising from an extremely low level, it continues to signal a tremendously oversupplied manufacturing materials sector. In fact, for the12 months ending March 2002, delivery speeds on more than 150 common industrial commodities averaged 10% faster than a year ago. Where buyers are encountering problems with suppliers' delivery performance, they're citing not renewed demand, but rather, abrupt plant closings, disruptions from merger activity, tight inventories, suppliers' product mix shifts, and employment cuts.
That said, it looks like the cyclical trough for leadtimes will be in March or April, which suggests a broad manufacturing recovery will be underway before the year is out. Packaging leads may have hit a cyclical low point in February-March. Market for molded plastic parts—while still oversupplied—appears to have shifted back toward balance. Fabricated metals leads appear to have hit a cyclical low point in February. Plastic resins market is already perilously close to balance. And, with new import tariffs in place, steel leadtimes could start stretching as early as next month.
Biggest gains
(annual rate-of-change)
| 1. | Gold | 78.2% |
| 2. | Polyols | 66.5% |
| 3. | Hydrogen peroxide | 57.4% |
| 4. | Acetic acid | 53.3% |
| 5. | Isocyonates | 42.2% |
| 6. | Sulfuric acid | 34.2% |
| 7. | Aluminum wire | 30.6% |
| 8. | Pressure pipe & tube | 25.8% |
| 9. | Caustic soda | 24.7% |
| 10. | Silver | 23.4% |
Biggest drops
(annual rate-of-change)
| 1. | Palladium | -42.6% |
| 2. | Platinum | -35.1% |
| 3. | Speed reducers | -33.6% |
| 4. | Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -30.2% |
| 5. | Polystyrene | -28.7% |
| 6. | Heavy structurals | -27.4% |
| 7. | Gears | -27.1% |
| 8. | Motor controls | -26.6% |
| 9. | Polypropylene | -24.7% |
| 10. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -23.8% |
Leadtimes
| &1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 9% | 64% | 18% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 4.3 | - |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 9% | 64% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.8 | - |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 18% | 55% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.4 | - |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 9% | 64% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.1 | - |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 9% | 64% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.1 | - |
| SRAM: 256 K | 11% | 67% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.7 | - |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 17% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.5 | - |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 17% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 3.7 | - |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 18% | 45% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 3.7 | - |
| Logic: Bipolar | 18% | 55% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 3.5 | - |
| Logic: CMOS | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.2 | - |
| MPU: 32-bit | 17% | 42% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 3.7 | - |
| MPU: 16-bit | 18% | 45% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.3 | - |
| Zener | 17% | 67% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 5.3 | - |
| Thyristor | 12% | 65% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.5 | - |
| Small-signal transistors | 16% | 58% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.4 | - |
| MOSFET | 19% | 50% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 6.1 | - |
| Analog digital converters | 19% | 50% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.5 | - |
| Digital/analog converters | 18% | 53% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.5 | - |
| Network resistors | 30% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.7 | - |
| Thick film chip resistors | 30% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.6 | - |
| Carbon film resistors | 41% | 45% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 4.9 | - |
| Wirewound resistors | 29% | 38% | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 5.4 | - |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 35% | 30% | 30% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.5 | - |
| Film capacitors | 32% | 32% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.3 | - |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 26% | 43% | 26% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 5.9 | - |
| D-SUB connectors | 25% | 56% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.3 | - |
| PLCC connectors | 15% | 69% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.0 | - |
| PCB connectors | 24% | 52% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.0 | - |
| DIP switches | 24% | 52% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.0 | - |
| Pushbutton switches | 32% | 39% | 23% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 3.6 | - |
| Slide switches | 20% | 55% | 15% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 3.5 | - |
| General purpose relays | 32% | 45% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.0 | - |
| Solid state relays | 27% | 45% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.3 | - |
| NiCd batteries | 26% | 58% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.6 | - |
| NiMH batteries | 20% | 67% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.9 | - |
| Li-ion batteries | 31% | 54% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.3 | - |
| Switcher power supplies | 17% | 46% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 3.8 | - |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 8% | 77% | 12% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.5 | - |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 8% | 77% | 12% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.8 | - |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 9% | 70% | 17% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.7 | - |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 38% | 43% | 17% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| CR sheet & strip | 36% | 42% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 35% | 45% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3.7 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Electrogalvanized | 29% | 46% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 29% | 38% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 3.7 | 4.2 |
| Other coated sheet | 34% | 47% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.7 | 5.0 |
| HR bars | 56% | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| CF bars | 55% | 36% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Stainless bars | 45% | 45% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 3.2 | 4.5 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 45% | 40% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Stainless plate | 38% | 54% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Light structurals | 55% | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Heavy structurals | 33% | 54% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 38% | 43% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Line pipe & tube | 57% | 29% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 41% | 44% | 13% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 41% | 46% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.7 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 45% | 41% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 26% | 56% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 30% | 53% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 50% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| Copper tube | 33% | 54% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 34% | 57% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Aluminum plate | 42% | 47% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.2 |
| Aluminum tube | 40% | 53% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Titanium sheet | 29% | 43% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.3 | 9.5 |
| Titanium plate | 28% | 39% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 5.6 | 5.0 | 13.0 |
| Titanium bars | 18% | 41% | 35% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 7.3 | 10.9 |
| Gold | 31% | 62% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| Silver | 9% | 82% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.3 | 4.3 |
| Platinum | 11% | 78% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.6 | 8.0 |
| Palladium | 10% | 80% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.3 | 8.0 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 8% | 42% | 35% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 7.4 | 8.0 | 7.5 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 8% | 58% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 9.0 | 10.7 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 8% | 50% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 9.0 | 12.3 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 3% | 67% | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Forgings | 0% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.3 |
| Magnet wire | 27% | 50% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Gray iron castings | 5% | 51% | 40% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.7 |
| Ductile iron castings | 3% | 50% | 43% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 6.2 | 5.1 | 5.9 |
| Investment castings | 3% | 35% | 50% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 7.2 | 7.1 | 9.4 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 4% | 45% | 43% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 6.5 | 5.6 | 7.0 |
| Steel wire | 28% | 55% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| Copper wire | 45% | 42% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 |
| Aluminum wire | 45% | 41% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 8% | 66% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.8 |
| Blow molded plastics | 5% | 70% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Extruded plastics | 9% | 78% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 9% | 63% | 23% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Seals & rings | 33% | 53% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Flat belting | 41% | 49% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Rubber hose | 44% | 47% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 43% | 41% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.0 |
| Motor controls | 38% | 49% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.1 | 4.1 |
| Gears | 41% | 37% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 2.7 | 4.3 |
| Lighting fixtures | 71% | 27% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Temperature controls | 34% | 58% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Test instruments | 32% | 58% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 54% | 41% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Special fasteners | 25% | 54% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| Speed reducers | 24% | 65% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 2.9 | 5.3 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 58% | 41% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Grinding wheel | 72% | 24% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Lubricants | 83% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Adhesives | 68% | 30% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Lift truck batteries | 47% | 47% | 2% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.9 | 4.1 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 34% | 66% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.1 |
| Corrugated medium | 34% | 61% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Containerboard | 26% | 74% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Corrugated containers | 33% | 64% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Folding cartons | 41% | 52% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.2 | 3.0 |
| Multiwall bags | 32% | 61% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.3 | 3.0 |
| Bags & liners | 54% | 44% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.9 | 2.2 | - |
| Steel drums | 53% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| Plastic drums | 47% | 47% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 1.3 | - |
| Fiber drums | 44% | 48% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 1.4 | - |
| IBCs | 21% | 79% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 1.9 | - |
| FIBCs | 9% | 91% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 13% | 23% | 44% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 7.5 | 7.9 | 9.6 |
| Filters | 54% | 28% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.7 | - |
| Pumps | 32% | 43% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.5 | 5.1 |
| Seals & gaskets | 46% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 2.0 | - |
| Valves | 30% | 47% | 19% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.0 |
| Pressure instruments | 24% | 43% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 3.3 | 3.8 |
| &1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 20% | 45% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 6.1 | 6.1 | 5.5 |
| Benzene | 25% | 33% | 17% | 17% | 8% | 0% | 7.3 | 10.3 | - |
| Carbon black | 8% | 44% | 24% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 7.6 | 9.0 | - |
| Caustic soda | 21% | 42% | 27% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 5.5 | 4.3 | 5.7 |
| Chlorine | 12% | 41% | 29% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 7.2 | 5.6 | - |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 10% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 8.7 | 6.5 | - |
| Ethylene | 22% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 6.4 | 8.3 | - |
| Ethylene glycol | 29% | 33% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 5.7 | 4.3 | - |
| Glycerine | 13% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 8.2 | 5.7 | - |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 33% | 33% | 13% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| LAS | 10% | 30% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 9.2 | 5.6 | - |
| Methanol | 37% | 32% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 5.5 | 6.1 | - |
| Phenol | 11% | 22% | 33% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 9.8 | 7.1 | - |
| Soda ash | 13% | 48% | 26% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 6.3 | 5.3 | - |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 12% | 53% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 6.6 | 5.6 | - |
| Styrene | 14% | 36% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 0% | 8.9 | 5.3 | - |
| Sulfuric acid | 31% | 46% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 4.9 | 3.7 | 5.7 |
| Titanium dioxide | 9% | 27% | 18% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 11.8 | 7.5 | - |
| Xylenes | 25% | 54% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.0 | - |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 10% | 30% | 30% | 20% | 10% | 0% | 9.2 | 6.2 | - |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 14% | 27% | 23% | 27% | 0% | 9% | 10.3 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| LLDPE | 17% | 17% | 26% | 30% | 0% | 9% | 10.5 | 6.8 | 8.8 |
| HDPE injection molding | 21% | 21% | 32% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 7.4 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 7% | 36% | 36% | 14% | 7% | 0% | 8.2 | 8.0 | 7.0 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 6% | 50% | 33% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| Polystyrene | 11% | 21% | 37% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 9.2 | 6.9 | 6.3 |
| Polypropylene | 11% | 32% | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 9.0 | 6.8 | 9.7 |
| Polyols | 10% | 30% | 40% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.0 |
| Isocyonates | 18% | 35% | 35% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 8.5 | 5.6 |
| Polycarbonate | 17% | 22% | 35% | 22% | 4% | 0% | 8.1 | 6.8 | 10.9 |
| Nylon | 11% | 41% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 7.1 | 6.7 | 10.3 |
| Acetal | 8% | 38% | 31% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 7.4 | 6.1 | 8.6 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 7% | 36% | 36% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 7.5 | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| Elastomers | 6% | 44% | 28% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 5.6 | 6.5 |
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