Look for higher densities, faster speeds and performance
Staff -- Purchasing, 3/20/2003 2:00:00 AM
The Double Data Rate (DDR) DRAM market has taken off this year as DDR technology is expected to be used in 50% of all Computer applications by the end of 2003, report suppliers.
Today, the majority of DRAMs consumed in marketplace are 256 Mb DDRs running at 266 MHz with a migration path to 333 MHz and 400 MHz by the end of 2003. However, server and notebook computers are starting to drive demand for 512 Mb DDR because of high demand for memory and space constraints.
DRAM suppliers also got a boost from Intel when it announced its support of DDR400 for its new chipsets next year, which should significantly accelerate demand.
Though key DRAM suppliers are ramping up production on DDRII product, most of them don't expect demand until some time in 2004 or 2005.
"DDRII will start emerging at the end of 2003 but we don't expect volumes until 2005," said Farhad Tabrizi, vice president, worldwide memory marketing, Hynix Semiconductor Inc., San Jose, Calif. He believes that DDRIII production will begin in the second half of 2005.
A few key reasons for the slow adoption includes a migration path from TSOP (thin small outline package) to FBGA (fine-pitch ball grid array) packaging which calls for an infrastructure change in the industry, Tabrizi said, and DDR is still the cheapest memory in the market. Along with the move to DDRII will be an expected voltage trend to 1.8-volt products from 2.5 volts.
A key issue in the DRAMs market is the proliferation of different technologies existing at the same time—Rambus, DDR and SDRAM—all with different speed variations and a fragmentation of markets for each technology, said Jim Elliott, product marketing manager for DRAM at Samsung Semiconductor Inc., San Jose, Calif.
Though the PC space has been the predominant user of DRAM and still is the larger consumer of DRAM bits, it's becoming less dominant when compared with mobile and consumer applications and high-end server applications that are starting to show some stronger bit growth than the traditional PC space, Elliott said.
A big product for Samsung is its new Rambus 1066 RDRAM RIMM with 128 Mb, 256 Mb and 512 Mb densities, available in both 16-bit and 32-bit configurations, targeting the high-end PC market. The company plans on offering higher speed Rambus products next year.
Elliot says the killer application for its new 512 Mb monolithic device is its new 2 Gbyte DDR DIMM found in high-end servers. Samsung will start sampling a 1 Gb device at the end of next year for a 4 Gbyte module.
A key driving force behind high-density memory sales this year in the server space will be Microsoft's new server operating system called .NET slated for introduction in 2003, Elliott said. Why? The mainstream Windows 2000-advanced version operating system only supports up to 8 Gbytes of system level memory and the new operating system will support up to 128 Gbytes of memory, he said.
An interesting twist in the desktop market for graphics applications is that new graphics DRAMs are being developed for point-to-point applications with data rates beyond 1 GHz, according to Micron Technologies. Micron's answer is a new graphics memory device called GDDR3, which extends DDRII into a high performance solution for high-end graphics.
What's in the product pipeline for Micron? The company recently announced the availability of DDR SRAM 32-bit DIMM s in sizes from 32 Mb to 512 Mb (including speeds of DDR266 and DDR333). Samples of the 512 Mb DDR SDRAM 32 DIMM s will be available in first quarter 2003. Samples of the 256 Mb DDR SDRAM, 128 Mb DDR SDRAM and 64 Mb DDR SDRAM and 32 Mb DDR SDRAM 32-Mb DIMM s are available now.
Other Micron products in the future pipeline include 256 Mb DDR400, 512 Mb DDR, 1 Gbit DDR, 256 Mb DDRII533, 256 Mb Mobile SDRAM and 256 Mb GDDR3.
SRAMs: Cell phones drive demand
Most SRAM manufacturers agree that the cell phone market is a key consumer of SRAMs, followed by networking applications.
Though SRAMs are used everywhere including the server market which uses high-end synchronous SRAM and industrial markets, more than 50% of the SRAMs produced are used in the cellular market, said Dan Gilbert, product marketing manager for SRAM at Samsung Semiconductor Inc., San Jose, Calif.
As a result, you have to look at what the cellular market is doing. Lower power and lower voltages are the biggest trends, Gilbert said.
However, higher density is playing a role particularly for high-end cell phones that integrate more features and functionality. Although the typical densities used today for cell phones slated for the U.S. market are 4 Mb and 8 Mb SRAMs, suppliers see a migration up to 32 Mb next year.
The exception is cellular phonesets used in Japan that are already using 32 Mb and 64 Mb SRAMs to support higher functionality and features that include e-mail, Web-enabled functionality, and color LCDs.
High-end cell phones is also fueling another trend—a growing migration to pseudo SRAMs (PSRAMs) because of speed, performance and cost requirements.
Tabrizi of Hynix Semiconductor believes that new cell phones that integrate many PDA functions will move to 32 Mb or 64 Mb pseudo SRAMs with Flash and low power DRAM for performance and cost reasons. The current 8 Mb SRAMs are very good but they are expensive, he said.
Higher density 64 Mb pseudo SRAM parts will be available in 2003. Both Hynix and Samsung, for example, will be sampling parts in second quarter 2003. Samsung also expects to sample 128 Mb devices by the end of 2003. NEC Electronics Inc. is in production for 32 Mb and 64 Mb pseudo SRAMs and will introduce a 128 Mb version next year.
A key trend in the server and industrial markets is to keep product around for a much longer period of time and not EOL (end-of-life) anything, Gilbert said, which translates into keeping lower density and 5-volt SRAMs around for industrial products. Companies are still using 32 Kbyte or 256 Kbyte in this arena while cell phone and server manufacturers are looking for higher-density products. Server manufacturers are looking for higher densities such as 32-Mb and 64-Mb synchronous SRAMs.
A key driver behind high-speed synchronous SRAM technology development continues to be communications and networking applications despite the current market downturn.
Future high bandwidth requirements are calling for double data rate (DDR) and quad data rate (QDR) SRAM devices, according to Micron Technology Inc.
Early adopters in the high-end networking equipment market are expected to start using QDR and QDRII for higher end modules in first half 2003.
Suppliers have already started to ramp up production. When demand hits, NEC, for example, is ready to start volume production of its 18 Mb QDRII SRAM in first quarter 2003. The company expects to offer 36 Mb versions for sampling in third quarter 2003, followed by volume production in quarter one 2004.
Cell phones drive flash
Similar to the SRAM market, the cellular handset market consumes about half the consumption of flash memory, which makes it a key market for driving performance. Camera and data-enabled phones that feature instant messaging and color screens are all driving flash bit consumption, said Bharath Rangarajan, director of product marketing for AMD's memory group, Sunnyvale, Calif.
Another market that is driving performance although from a different perspective in terms of robustness and reliability is engine control applications in automobiles. For example, AMD recently introduced its 16 Mb device for the automotive market. The high performance Am29BDD160 offers frequencies above 70 MHz and a very high temperature range of -40° C to 145° C. It also has simultaneous read/write capabilities and a very elaborate security architecture that prevents inadvertent or unauthorized access to the code, Rangarajan said.
Suppliers are also introducing new architectures for cell phones and PDAs. AMD's MirrorBit family which offers 16 Mb to 256 Mb devices can be used in cell phones, PDAs, automotive dashboard applications and networking equipment such as switchers, routers and hubs.
MirrorBit samples are available for the 16 Mb, 32 Mb, 64 Mb, 128 Mb and 256 Mb devices with volume production schedule in first quarter 2003. A 512 Mb version is scheduled for the second half 2003.
STMicroelectronics offers a family of LightFlash devices with densities ranging from 16 to 16 Mb for consumer applications including DVDs, PDAs and digital still cameras. Densities under development include 128 Mb and 256 Mb.
STMicroelectronics also introduced a new multiple bank architecture with the introduction of its 64 Mb devices that also offer 1.8 volt power supply voltage and synchronous burst read mode for high-performance 3G mobile phones.
Microprocessors: 64-bit processing is here
A key technology breakthrough over the past year in the processor market is the introduction of 64-bit processing. But the key question is who will be the early adopters of the technology. Processor makers say it will be server applications.
Servers will initially drive demand for 64-bit computing, followed by desktop and workstation markets simultaneously but not for mainstream desktops, Kevin Knox, AMD's director of business development. Gaming applications will also gain tremendous performance improvements, he added.
Processor manufacturers such as AMD, IBM and Intel are making a push into the 64-bit processing arena with the introduction of several new products that are expected to power next-generation servers, workstations and desktop computers.
AMD's (Clawhammer) Athlon 64 processor is the industry's first 64-bit, x86 PC processor for desktop and mobile computer that can run both 32-bit and 64-bit applications simultaneously with no performance degradation said the company. Systems incorporating the new device are expected to be available in the latter part of first quarter 2003 or early second quarter 2003. The company also plans to launch 64-bit versions of its Opteron server processor and mobile processors.
"This is a major innovation that will allow organizations to move to 64-bit computing much faster than in the past and allow them to migrate when they're ready. The real advantage of 64-bit computing is that you can access greater than 4 Gbytes of memory," asks Knox.
"We're going to enable a next generation of features and functionality that we can't get beyond today with 32-bit computing," Knox said.
In fourth quarter 2002, IBM announced availability of its new high performance PowerPC microprocessor for desktops, workstations, entry-level servers and communications products. The new 64-bit PowerPC microprocessor, the PowerPC 970, is the first introduction in a family of high-end 900 series powerPC processors for high-end desktop and entry-level servers.
Using the POWER4 server processor as the base design for the new 64-bit processor is the first time IBM has used its server architecture in a desktop application. The PowerPC970 offers initial speeds of 1.4 GHz to 1.8 GHz, two to three times faster clock speeds, and native support for 32-bit applications. The device will be built on 0.13-micron process technology and 300-mm wafers. Samples will be available in the first half of 2003, followed by volume production in the second half 2003.
Overall, you'll find that performance is a number one factor for servers and workstations while desktop users need more stability rather than higher processing power and mobile users look at long battery life as a key criteria.
To address the mobile computing markets need for longer battery life, AMD developed a new mobile technology called PowerNow! which dynamically determines how much processing power the computer needs, whether it's sitting idle or running an application such as Excel or PowerPoint. Knox said it improves battery life as much as 30%. The new technology is featured in AMD's new high performance mobile Athlon XP processor 2200+.
Also focused on power requirements, IBM's new PowerPC 405LP (low power) processors for portable applications offer speeds of 200-266 MHz. Samples are available now with volume production plans to be announced in first quarter 2003.
IBM plans to migrate the product to 0.13-micron process technology along with new features in the future. "We want to launch the LP first before we worry about 0.13 migration. With the right amount of interest and customer engagement we'll move to 0.13," said Kalpesh Gala, PowerPC strategic marketing manager, IBM Microelectronics, East Fishkill, N.Y.
What sets IBM apart from its competitors is that it also has in-house ASIC capabilities. In less than two years, IBM has delivered ten different standard products and more than 30 semi-custom or custom offerings. The latest standard product, the dual-Ethernet PowerPC 405EP, introduced in October 2002, supports 133, 200 and 266 MHz and consumes only one watt of power at 200 MHz for wireless 802.11 base stations and wireless LANs access points. The company is ramping up for production.
In the desktop PC market, Intel Corp.'s introduction of its 3.0 GHz Pentium IV this year was significant for reaching that performance milestone but also because it marks the first time Intel implemented its Hyper-Threading technology for its desktop processors. The technology will become a standard feature for all of Intel's Pentium IV products running at higher than 3 GHz speeds.
Previously, Intel only incorporated the technology into the Xeon processor portfolio for servers and workstations.
Intel plans to increase the speed of the Pentium IV processors through next year until the second half of 2003 when it introduces a new generation of desktop processors, code named Prescott.
"We're going to use a new manufacturing process to make it. At Intel, every two years we develop a new manufacturing process or recipe to make chips. The current one is .13-micron, which we implemented early last year, and the next generation is the 90 nanometer (.9-micron) process," said Manny Vara, Intel's spokesperson.
In first half 2003, Intel also plans to introduce a new breed of mobile processors, code name "Banias". This processor will include new features that don't exist in any processor today, Vara said. The idea behind the new processor is to give the user higher performance with longer battery life, he said.
On the server and workstation side, Intel has introduced a new generation of 64-bit Itanium processors. The new Itanium 2 processors offer double the performance of the previous family. The biggest improvement in the redesign was doubling the Level 3 cache to 3 MB. Next year, Intel will introduce more processors at higher clock speeds with the same architecture with built-in 3-MB cache.
During the latter part of 2003, when Intel is rolling out its 90 nanometer process, the Xeon family will migrate to the higher cache.
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