Coking coal may drop by 4%
By Purchasing Staff -- Purchasing, 12/19/2005 7:00:00 AM
Coking coal prices may be cut 4% to $120/metric ton in the fiscal year starting in April because of expected increases in supply and cutbacks in world steel production, according to the median estimate of nine analysts polled by Bloomberg News. Coking coal prices since last April 1 have been $125.
World coking coal shipments have been rising from 208.3 million tons in fiscal 2004 to an expected 215.8 million metric tons in fiscal 2005, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, which sees a 5.4% in 2006. However, global steelmakers are expected to use slowing growth in steel production and high coal inventories to argue for lower prices. Global steel output may rise 4.9% next year, slowing from 6.1% in 2005, says Gerard Burg, minerals and energy economist at National Bank of Australia. Benchmark coking coal prices are negotiated annually in individual talks between such miners as BHP Billiton of Australia and such steelmakers as Nippon Steel of Japan and Arcelor of Europe. "Coking coal producers will have a hell of a fight on their hands trying to convince steelmakers they need to pay more in (fiscal) 2006," says Keith Williams, business director of resources with Wilson HTM Investment Group in Melbourne.
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