What's Happening in Markets
Staff -- Purchasing, 1/15/2004 2:00:00 AM
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New York Fed economists not too long ago devised a tech-growth measurement tool called the Tech Pulse Index; now, they report that this measure jumped by an annualized 35.9% in November. The index, which takes into account supply, demand, shipments, production, employment and investment, based on federal economic statistics, is a real-time snapshot.
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Market analysts believe the U.S. high-tech upturn has a firm foundation. Examples: UBS and A.G. Edwards both see above-average 2004 U.S. sales growth for sales of analog and mixed-signal semiconductors, adding that overall U.S. chip sales could rise 18%.
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About 12% of the nation's high-tech jobs have evaporated during the past two years. AeA, a trade group formerly known as the American Electronics Association, says the high-tech industry ended the year with 5.73 million workers, down from 6.5 million employees at the end of 2001.
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Projecting a 2004 recovery in business spending on personal computer equipment, market research firm IDC forecasts worldwide shipments of desktops, notebooks and servers at 168.2 million units, a growth rate of 10.2%.
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Evidence is increasing that corporate travel departments are loosening the reins on business travel, says analyst Jeffrey Kauffman at Fulcrum Global Partners. He points to surveys by Marriott International and other hotel chains, which suggest corporate travel budgets will get larger for 2004, after three years of cutbacks.
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Railroad carloads ran well ahead of forecasts in the fourth quarter. Analyst John Barnes at Deutsche Bank says rail traffic has been rising steadily since September, with grain and coal both showing big gains. "We believe this reflects the true underlying strength in rail carloads, which continue to recover along with the industrial economy," Barnes says.
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Semiconductors sales are expected to increase 19.4% in 2004 to $194.6 billion, forecasts the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) trade group. In the volatile DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chip mart, the SIA is forecasting sales growth of 35% to $22.2 billion in 2004.
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The market for 50- to 100-seat jet aircraft has peaked, says analyst Cameron Doerksen of the Dlouhy Merchant brokerage in Montreal. As the air market picks up, mainline airlines will reduce the need to downsize to smaller regional jets.
Semiconductor sales increased 5.4% in May
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