How Supply Managers See High-Tech Business
Staff -- Purchasing, 4/15/2004 2:00:00 AM
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Commerce says demand for U.S.-made durable goods soared 2.5% in February, nearly reversing the 2.7% drop in January. But excluding volatile transportation goods, February's new orders fell 0.3% after rising 0.6% in January. Also, shipments of durable goods increased just 0.8% in February after falling 1% in January.
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Investor optimism fell in March, according to the UBS Index of Investor Optimism. The overall index, a joint effort of UBS and the Gallup Organization, dropped 12 points to 85 in the month from 97 in February as investors expressed concerns about unemployment and stock market performance. Of those surveyed, UBS found 54% optimistic about prospects for economic growth; 42% optimistic about unemployment; and 58% optimistic about stock market performance—all down from February's levels.
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Housing remains a growth sector; in fact, sales of new homes rose 5.8% in February to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.16 million units, the fastest pace since August. January's sales pace was 1.1 million. The number of new homes on the market rose about 0.3% in February to 373,000, the highest level in 15 years. Commerce calculates the inventory at only 3.8 months worth of sales, down from 4.1 months in January.
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Fed interest-rate patience is not unlimited, according to Atlanta Fed President Jack Guynn. If a high rate of economic growth pans out, the central bankers may consider raising interest rates, Guynn told business students at East Tennessee State University. "It is indeed a luxury to have an inflation environment in which policymakers can be patient in ensuring the economy has gained a solid footing. That said, luxury comes with a price tag, and patience is not unlimited," he remarks.
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Consumers don't have a lot of faith in the current economy. Recent surveys by ABC News, the New York Times and Money magazine reveal the confidence of American consumers has been flagging lately. Among contributing factors suggested are the recent surge in energy prices, continued weakness on the job front, and the sluggish stock market. Implication: If consumers put off purchases, makers and sellers of big-ticket items such as cars and washing machines will suffer.
Signs show credit may be loosening
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