iSuppli trims 2008 semiconductor forecast
By Jim Carbone -- Purchasing, 1/2/2008 6:49:00 PM
Citing concerns about the global economy, high-tech industry researcher iSuppli has reduced its forecast for semiconductor revenue growth in 2008. The researcher now says the global chip market will grow 7.5% to $291.4 billion in 2008. Earlier it had forecast 9.3% revenue growth.
The good news for buyers is that weaker demand will result in falling prices for some types of chips, including DRAM and flash memory, at least in the first half of the year.
Global semiconductor sales in 2008 will be negatively impacted by rising energy costs. Furthermore, the sub-prime mortgage crisis is dimming the economic outlook for the United States next year. This will have global repercussions, impacting demand in other nations.
The first half of 2008 will be extremely weak in terms of semiconductor sales. Global chip revenue during the fist six months of the year will decline to $135.9 billion, down 4.5% from $142.3 billion in the second half of 2007.
Memory market conditions will be very poor during the first half of 2008, with prices falling due to oversupply conditions for DRAM and NAND-type flash memory early in the year. The DRAM market is expected to undergo a pricing recovery in the second quarter of 2008, but NAND will not begin to rebound until the third quarter. Because of this staggered recovery, the impact of memory’s resurgence will not be felt by the overall semiconductor market until the third quarter of 2008.
With memory devices expected to account for 21.6% of global semiconductor revenue in 2008, developments in this market will have a major impact on the overall chip industry. The normal, seasonal up tick in semiconductor sales will drive the recovery in memory in the second half.
Also see Consumer electronics will drive chip industry growth in 2008
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