Molybdenum prices could break a record in 2008
Supply expected to slide while demand is growing
By Purchasing Staff -- Purchasing, 11/14/2007 12:43:00 PM
Molybdenum prices could rise in 2008 back or above 2005 levels as buyers cope with 5% less output while demand is rising 4%--thus widening a supply deficit that already has boosted spot prices by 20% this year. Molybdenum, a steel-strengthening alloy metal, averaged a record high $32/lb in 2005, $25 in 2006 and has been averaging $30 so far this year.
Market reports now suggest that moly could cost in a range of $32 to $36 next year. That’s because various market analyses suggest global production will slide by 20 million pounds next year—due to slippage from Kennecott Utah Copper of the U.S. and Codelco of Chile. Atop that, China is expected to reduce exports of the metal to better supply its own steel industry. These supply cutbacks won’t totally be offset by increased output at Thompson Creek Metals of the U.S.
Upshot: UBS Securities analyst Brian MacArthur writes in a research note that he “continues to expect prices to remain well supported over the next couple of years given strong steel related demand and production constraints related to Chinese production problems and export regulation.”
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