Leadtime Report
Staff -- Purchasing, 5/6/2004 2:00:00 AM
Biggest gains
(12-month rate of change)
| 1. | Flash: 8 Mb | 44.0% |
| 2. | Flash: 16 Mb | 40.3% |
| 3. | Heavy structurals | 39.6% |
| 4. | HR bars | 39.2% |
| 5. | Filters | 36.7% |
| 6. | CF bars | 36.3% |
| 7. | Acetal | 36.1% |
| 8. | Logic: CMOS | 35.8% |
| 9. | SRAM: 256 K | 35.4% |
| 10. | Stainless bars | 35.3% |
Biggest drops
(12-month rate of change)
| 1. | Special fasteners | -17.5% |
| 2. | Styrene | -14.9% |
| 3. | Methanol | -13.3% |
| 4. | Test instruments | -13.1% |
| 5. | Lift truck batteries | -12.1% |
| 6. | Containerboard | -12.0% |
| 7. | Aluminum sheet & strip | -11.3% |
| 8. | Lift trucks | -10.0% |
| 9. | Sodium bicarbonate | -9.7% |
| 10. | Vinyl chloride monomer | -9.6% |
Aluminum sheet & strip supply stays loose
Aluminum sheet continues to get delivered quickly because of falling demand from non-transportation end users and expanded supply from domestic and foreign competitors, including imports from China. Prudential Financial bullishly has forecast aluminum demand growth of 7.8% in 2004, citing strong first quarter sales to car and plane makers. However, "data crunching" shows that purchasing so far this year has been lower than expected for aluminum sheet and strip products by building and construction, distribution, electrical, machinery and equipment and consumer durables.
CR steel sheet still tough to get delivered
The U.S. market for cold-rolled steel sheet is classified as tightening since healthy (if not expansive) demand is causing leadtimes to stretch, on average, past seven weeks. Mill behavior as early as January suggested that all sheet steel supply was going to get very tight, and that has happened as producers have leveraged deliveries against monthly increases in basis prices and raw material-cost surcharges. Besides the domestic mills operating at reduced levels, imports are down, so buyers are continuing double-booking programs to avoid late-Q2 price hikes.
More trouble ahead for copper sheet & strip
Copper continues to get the most buzz from market mavens for continued inflation potential throughout 2004. Reasons: Modest capital spending recovery, continued strong construction activity, weaker dollar making foreign product less visible, and strong Chinese demand boosting foreign sales. Despite that, Purchasingdata.com finds leadtimes stretching for copper and brass sheet, brass rod, copper tube, and copper wire. That's because demand, which rose 5% last year, looks to heading for 11% growth in 2004.
Aluminum demand continues to drop
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