Photovoltaic production capacity increases
Despite the recession, photovoltaic device manufacturers have added capacity resulting in lower panel and system prices
James Carbone -- Purchasing, 6/19/2009 9:38:54 AM
Prices for photovoltaic cells and solar energy systems are falling as production capacity increases, according to a new report by researcher IC Insights.
Manufacturers of solar-energy cells and thin films are having a difficult time matching investments for new production capacity with the requirements of the fledgling photovoltaic (PV)-device market during the recession, says the report.
The report says global PV production capacity in 2009 will grow 32% despite a forecasted 22% decline in solar system installations as measured in megawatts of capacity.
As a result, there will be a 28% price drop for cell-based and thin film solar panels and modules in 2009. Installed system price will fall about 9%, a lower figure because labor and other factors are a substantial part of the installed system cost, says Jeremy Young, author of the report titled "Solar Energy: Growth Opportunities for the Semiconductor Industry."
"Our forecast calls for continued price decreases, but at a much smaller change per year, with prices nearly flat in 2010 and price declines of 2% to 5% over the following three years, at the module level," says Young.
The report says solar PV cell and TF capital expenditures (capex) will fall 40% in 2010 to about $680 million from $1.13 billion in 2009, excluding capex on assembly of cell-based modules and panels. However, solar PV capital expenditures will begin a steady recovery in 2011, rising 13% that year to $772 million but surging 74% in 2012 to $1.34 billion, based on IC Insights' five-year forecast.
With PV manufacturers unable to abruptly curb additions to production plants, capacity utilization rates for solar devices are forecast to plummet from 83% in 2008 to 54% in 2009 and to 52% in 2010. However, capacity utilization will increase 63% in 2011 and to 82% in 2013.
More on the solar market:
Demand for photovoltaic cells to rise
IC industry poised for recovery in 2010
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