Forecasted demand for trucking equipment remains low
FTR sticks to 47% demand dip for Class 8 equipment but sees gradual uptick in 2010
Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 6/30/2009 11:23:07 AM
Forecasting firm FTR Associates says that "recent data suggests that the worst of the recession is over" but tough times will continue for truck and trailer manufacturers through at least the end of 2009 and likely beyond. The firm's forecast for a 47% decline in Class 8 truck production this year remains unchanged.
It isn't good news for steel suppliers that the Nashville, Ind.-based research firm's North American Commercial Truck and Trailer Outlook midyear update sees no pickup in orders for heavy duty commercial vehicles until sometime in 2010. Even then, production next year still is anticipated to be 30% below 2008 levels.
Although FTR sees the recession gradually moderating, the firm also cautions that the road to recovery is likely to be difficult for truck equipment makers. "At the moment, transport demand is so weak that in fact the trucking industry as a whole actually does not need any new trailers at all," Eric Starks, president of FTR, recently told an industry gathering. He suggests that special needs of individual trucking firms will result in a continuation of the current low level of orders for trailers.
"While the near-term picture is becoming clearer every day,
there is an unusual amount of uncertainty" in the long-term picture of 2011 and
beyond, says Starks. "We are in an unprecedented economic situation where past
performance does not necessarily provide relevant guideposts."
So, "the range of possible outcomes is still very wide," says Starks, "with
continued slow recovery or a faster snap-back both quite possible" for
commercial large and medium-duty truck and trailer manufacturing in coming
years.
See also: Capacity, carriers continue to disappear in truckling freight slump
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