European steel demand forecast to rise in 2010
Steel demand will be up 14% after 33% drop in ‘09
Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 7/2/2009 11:16:56 AM
European demand for steel is expected to shrink by 33% this year and recover by just 14% in 2010 even after the inventory draw-down by steel users comes to an end. That's the latest forecast, the "Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2009-2010," from Eurofer, the European Confederation of Iron and Steel Industries.
The current economic downturn and de-stocking by such steel-using sectors as construction and auto manufacturing has eroded steel consumption and will continue to do so in the third quarter, according to Eurofer. That's why Eurofer says the "very bleak outlook for the steel using sectors for 2009" will cause European steel output ton fall more than 18% this year, followed by "low-level stabilization in 2010."
Still, "we finally see some light at the end of the tunnel," says Gordon Moffat, director general of Eurofer. "Recent surveys and leading indicators suggest that the economic downturn could bottom out over the coming months."
European steel consumption was down 43% in the first six months but Moffat says the market should begin to show a slight rebound in the fourth quarter "as the negative effect of the stock cycle begins to ease." However, he adds that "any steel recovery is expected to be fragile and still surrounded by uncertainties and downward risks."
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