Little acceleration in 2010 truck buys
Heavy-duty truck demand will be slightly better
Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 11/2/2009 3:49:15 PM
Paccar sees a "modest improvement" in heavy-duty truck sales next year, ending three straight years of lower sales in the U.S. Paccar, whose truck brands include Peterbilt and Kenworth, predicts heavy truck industry sales in a range of 110,000 to 140,000 trucks. That's up from the company's 2009 sales forecast of 100,000 to 110,000 trucks, but well below the normal replacement volume of about 250,000 trucks annually.
Mark Pigott, CEO of the Bellevue, Wash., company says in a conference call with Wall Street analysts that falling freight volume during the recession dampened demand for new commercial trucks. "The economy is getting a little bit better [but] we're still in a recession," he says, supporting the view of analysts that peak-to-trough (2006-2009), U.S. sales of medium and heavy trucks will drop 62% and 69%, respectively.
"As trucking companies, private fleets and even public fleets are keeping a tight grip on the purse strings, new orders continue to bounce along the bottom in 2009," agrees analyst Matthew Kremar at IHS Global Insight. He says underutilized and idle trucks remain the rule rather than the exception, "However, he also expects somewhat better sales next year, when traffic flows improve, "setting the stage for a strong cyclical recovery beginning in 2011."
Meanwhile, Cummins, the Columbus, Ind.-based engine manufacturer expects very low demand from the U.S. medium- and heavy-duty truck markets during the first half of 201. The firm says in a statement that, based on current orders, the first six months of next year will be "extremely difficult, especially in North America."
See also: Truck makers struggle as equipment demand bottoms
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