Platinum prices could rise
Marketer Johnson Matthey sees 32% price jump by mid-year 2010
Tom Stundza -- Purchasing, 11/24/2009 3:07:50 PM
Advanced materials technology firm Johnson Matthey forecasts
that platinum could be as high as $1,550/troy ounce by mid-2010, as compared
with an average $1,178 so far this year. Reason: A possible deficit in supply
if automaking worldwide rebounds as much as expected, triggering increased
catalytic converter production.
Johnson Matthey's principal marketing analyst, Alison Cowley, tells MiningWeekly.com in Johannesburg that, since there is "relatively limited" potential for supply to increase, "we would certainly expect the 2009 surplus to be eaten up pretty quickly, and I think we might well see a platinum market that's in deficit next year."
Johnson Matthey's precious metals marketing director, Mark Bedford, tells the news service that he expects global vehicle production - which was likely to fall to 57 million units this year - to increase in 2010, possibly to 65-million units.
That would be positive for sales of most platinum group metals, which all are used to make auto catalysts, and possibly boost palladium prices to a mid-year 2010 average of $390/oz. Palladium this year is averaging $254.
Bedford foresees both platinum and palladium deficits in 2010 because of the auto catalyst production growth and "some of the industrial demand coming back as well." This year's industrial demand for the two metals was down because the global recession reduced demand from jewelry makers, he says.
A Johnson Matthey report says North American net platinum demand is forecast to fall by more than 25% this year to 140,000 ounces as consumers' disposable income had shrunk and retailers reduced jewelry-making stocks.
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