OECD steel demand will slip again in '99
By Staff -- Purchasing, 6/3/1999
Steel demand among the 29-member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (oecd) is expected to decline this year, but could start to recover during the second half. Latest forecast suggests that steel consumption will drop 2% in '99 after falling 3.4% in '98 (from 412.5 million metric tons in '97) due to financial and economic crises in Asia, Russia, and Latin America."For 1999, the slowdown in oecd steel demand should be more marked during the first half of the year, and we should see beginnings of a slight recovery during the second half, which would help ease tensions in international steel trade," says the Paris-based economic group. "Excess supply over demand and very low prices pushed up steel stocks to very high levels in 1998. For 1999, this should lead to a decline of some 2% in steel demand in the oecd zone."
Steel consumption is expected to decline 2.5% in the European Union, but is seen rising in Turkey, Hungary, and the Czech Republic. In North America, demand is expected to fall 6.5% in the U.S. and to rise slightly in Canada and Mexico. Steel consumption is expected to rise 3.3% in Japan and 7% in Korea in 1999.
Crude steel production in the oecd-member nations is expected to ease 0.5% in 1999 after falling 3.4% in 1998 from 478.1 million tonnes in 1997. The 1998 decline in production reflected rising imports in some countries and sharp output cuts among oecd members most affected by the crises.
International trade of steel products is expected to contract this year as some oecd members reduce production and as government-imposed trade barriers proliferate. Steel exports from oecd countries are expected to fall 6% in '99 after rising 4.6% in '98, while imports to group of nations could fall 13% after jumping 16.7% in 1998. Japanese steel exports are expected to fall in '99 after rising 11% in '98.
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