NAERC says power capacity will be 'tight but manageable'
By Staff -- Purchasing, 7/15/1999
There's a mixed prognosis for industrial power buyers who've decided to sweat out their interruptible rates this summer rather than converting to firm power rates.On one hand, Michael Gent, president of the North American Electric Reliability Council (naerc) reports that, "Generating capacity resources will be adequate to meet projected electricity demands in most areas of North America this summer. Resources are expected to be tight but manageable in the Midwest, Southeast, Texas, and Southwest United States." On the other hand, naerc's 1999 Summer Assessment (released in June) notes that all of these areas are expecting relatively low capacity margins, so "higher-than-projected demand during hot weather or unexpected generation outages could put a strain on electricity supplies," spelling trouble for interruptible customers.
naerc reports that "areas of concern last summer in the Illinois-Wisconsin-Missouri area and New England show a marked improvement with the return of key nuclear generating units." The general prognosis by region:
- Although capacity resources are expected to be tight in the Midwest (ecar region), there is a greater likelihood this year that electricity will be available from neighboring regions.
- In Texas, (ercot region), demand projections are only slightly less than the record peak demands set last summer during the hottest summer on record, and capacity margins are significantly reduced.
- The projected capacity margin in the Southeast (serc region) continues to be less than in previous years, but is expected to be adequate if demand forecasts are not exceeded and generator unit availability remains high.
- The Southwestern United States (Arizona-New Mexico-Southern Nevada and the California-Mexico areas of wscc) may not have sufficient margins to accommodate a widespread severe heat wave or a significantly higher-than-normal generator forced outages. Those areas continue to have peak demand grow faster than the addition of new generation facilities.
naerc reports also that "improvements to the transmission system have increased transfer capabilities in some key areas. However, the additional transfer capability from these improvements has already been reserved for the summer, and many key transmission interfaces will continue to be heavily loaded."
Buyers can download a copy of naerc's 1999 Summer Assessment at www.nerc.com/~ec/syscond.html.
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