Big oversupply persists
By Staff -- Purchasing, 10/4/2001
Even with shipping delays caused by the Sept. 11 terror attacks in New York and Washington, D.C., most markets had sufficient slack to keep supply chain disruptions to a minimum. Still, a few markets appear to be shifting back in the direction of balance, so longer leads could come into play by mid- 2002. For the 12 months ending September, buyers say chemicals leadtimes nearly doubled compared to year ago as the industry continued to operate at record low capacity utilization rates. Big production curtailments have brought markets for certain nonferrous metals abruptly back into balance; for the 12 months ending September, nonferrous leads actually averaged a bit longer than year ago. The fabricated metals market continues to move away from balance and into oversupply. Plastic resins remain substantially oversupplied as well, but the overall market now appears to be moving back in the direction of balance. PURCHASING's MRO leadtime indicator shows an oversupplied market for the next three months at least. Packaging leads continue to shrink, boding ill for a manufacturing rally. Equipment leads are off 11% from year ago, suggesting that Q3 data from Commerce will show a continued slide in capital spending.
| 1. | Caustic soda | 34.9% |
| 2. | Gold | 34.8% |
| 3. | Magnet wire | 31.6% |
| 4. | Sulfuric acid | 22.8% |
| 5. | Platinum | 22.3% |
| 6. | Acetal | 18.5% |
| 7. | Hydrogen peroxide | 15.7% |
| 8. | Acetic acid | 14.7% |
| 9. | Multiwall bags | 13.1% |
| 10. | Compression molded plastics | 12.3% |
| 1. | Polyester, thermoplastic | - 29.3% |
| 2. | LDPE | -26.3% |
| 3. | LLDPE | - 23.6% |
| 4. | Aluminum wire | -23.5% |
| 5. | HDPE extrusion/blow molding | - 22.8% |
| 6. | Heavy steel structurals | - 20.3% |
| 7. | Aluminum tube | - 19.2% |
| 8. | Other coated steel sheet | - 18.3% |
| 9. | Light steel structurals | - 18.3% |
| 10. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -18.0% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 36% | 21% | 29% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.4 | |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 38% | 23% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 4.7 | |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 46% | 15% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 4.4 | |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 31% | 23% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.2 | |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 27% | 27% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.4 | |
| SRAM: 256 K | 25% | 17% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 6.0 | |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 17% | 25% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 6.9 | |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 20% | 30% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.9 | |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 18% | 36% | 36% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.7 | |
| Logic: Bipolar | 25% | 25% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 5.6 | |
| Logic: CMOS | 23% | 31% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.5 | |
| MPU: 32-bit | 17% | 25% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 6.3 | |
| MPU: 16-bit | 15% | 31% | 46% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 6.0 | |
| Zener | 19% | 38% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.4 | |
| Thyristor | 23% | 23% | 46% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.8 | |
| Small-signal transistors | 19% | 31% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 5.7 | |
| MOSFET | 13% | 40% | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 5.7 | |
| Analog digital converters | 6% | 41% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.6 | |
| Digital/analog converters | 6% | 44% | 38% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 6.5 | |
| Network resistors | 19% | 44% | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.1 | |
| Thick film chip resistors | 15% | 23% | 46% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 7.0 | |
| Carbon film resistors | 20% | 35% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 5.3 | |
| Wirewound resistors | 18% | 29% | 35% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 6.7 | |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 12% | 41% | 35% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.1 | |
| Film capacitors | 10% | 50% | 35% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.4 | |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 5% | 30% | 50% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 7.4 | |
| D-SUB connectors | 14% | 50% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 5.2 | |
| PLCC connectors | 25% | 25% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 5.6 | |
| PCB connectors | 20% | 33% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 6.0 | |
| DIP switches | 19% | 38% | 38% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 5.4 | |
| Pushbutton switches | 42% | 29% | 25% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 3.9 | |
| Slide switches | 22% | 44% | 28% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 4.8 | |
| General purpose relays | 38% | 28% | 28% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 4.4 | |
| Solid state relays | 36% | 27% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 4.4 | |
| NiCd batteries | 35% | 29% | 24% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 4.9 | |
| NiMH batteries | 27% | 33% | 27% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 5.5 | |
| Li-ion batteries | 31% | 31% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.9 | |
| Switcher power supplies | 21% | 37% | 32% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.6 | |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 9% | 59% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 5.0 | |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 5% | 62% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 5.2 | |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 5% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.8 | |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 48% | 36% | 15% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| CR sheet & strip | 45% | 35% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 35% | 41% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.3 | 4.0 | 4.8 |
| Electrogalvanized | 30% | 33% | 27% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 18% | 49% | 29% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| Other coated sheet | 19% | 46% | 31% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| HR bars | 57% | 24% | 17% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| CF bars | 51% | 32% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Stainless bars | 51% | 28% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 38% | 38% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| Stainless plate | 49% | 24% | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Light structurals | 55% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 |
| Heavy structurals | 38% | 42% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.3 | 4.9 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 38% | 38% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Line pipe & tube | 53% | 34% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 41% | 38% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 52% | 30% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 50% | 35% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 27% | 51% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 37% | 43% | 14% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 51% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Copper tube | 45% | 41% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 48% | 31% | 15% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| Aluminum plate | 50% | 39% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Aluminum tube | 44% | 40% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Titanium sheet | 17% | 28% | 39% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 11.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 |
| Titanium plate | 18% | 18% | 41% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 11.6 | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| Titanium bars | 17% | 28% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 6% | 10.1 | 8.3 | 9.5 |
| Gold | 25% | 42% | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 |
| Silver | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Platinum | 10% | 40% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.0 |
| Palladium | 10% | 40% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 16% | 32% | 26% | 16% | 11% | 0% | 6.5 | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 15% | 31% | 31% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 9.4 | 7.2 | 11.2 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 13% | 25% | 31% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 11.9 | 8.3 | 13.0 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 10% | 61% | 28% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| Forgings | 2% | 41% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 7.1 | 8.5 |
| Magnet wire | 14% | 57% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Gray iron castings | 6% | 43% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 6.7 | 6.1 | 7.8 |
| Ductile iron castings | 8% | 36% | 49% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 7.1 | 6.4 | 7.7 |
| Investment castings | 3% | 34% | 46% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 8.3 | 7.5 | 11.6 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 3% | 39% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 7.3 | 11.9 |
| Steel wire | 45% | 39% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Copper wire | 38% | 45% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.1 |
| Aluminum wire | 38% | 38% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 8% | 68% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 5.1 |
| Blow molded plastics | 13% | 66% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Extruded plastics | 18% | 62% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 7% | 50% | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Seals & rings | 38% | 44% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Flat belting | 45% | 45% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Rubber hose | 57% | 35% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 51% | 38% | 4% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.6 |
| Motor controls | 42% | 44% | 8% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Gears | 36% | 39% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| Lighting fixtures | 71% | 26% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Temperature controls | 45% | 47% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Test instruments | 38% | 50% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 56% | 32% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Special fasteners | 28% | 55% | 8% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Speed reducers | 42% | 44% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 68% | 27% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Grinding wheel | 75% | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Lubricants | 85% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Adhesives | 75% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Lift truck batteries | 55% | 35% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.4 | 3.2 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 35% | 55% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Corrugated medium | 29% | 62% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.9 |
| Containerboard | 30% | 57% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
| Corrugated containers | 35% | 61% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Folding cartons | 36% | 60% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Multiwall bags | 30% | 53% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.0 |
| Bags & liners | 33% | 55% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 3.2 | |
| Steel drums | 62% | 29% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 1.9 | 2.3 | |
| Plastic drums | 50% | 40% | 3% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.0 | |
| Fiber drums | 55% | 36% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.6 | |
| IBCs | 36% | 43% | 14% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.9 | |
| FIBCs | 29% | 50% | 14% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 4.1 | |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 13% | 30% | 28% | 17% | 13% | 0% | 8.3 | 9.2 | 9.0 |
| Filters | 53% | 37% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.7 | |
| Pumps | 43% | 39% | 13% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.4 | 4.4 |
| Seals & gaskets | 58% | 33% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.5 | |
| Valves | 44% | 40% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Pressure instruments | 43% | 43% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 19% | 56% | 13% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Benzene | 11% | 56% | 11% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 7.4 | 8.6 | |
| Carbon black | 0% | 64% | 21% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 7.5 | 7.6 | |
| Caustic soda | 18% | 40% | 35% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 5.8 | 6.2 | 4.6 |
| Chlorine | 6% | 63% | 19% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7.3 | 6.9 | |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 0% | 57% | 14% | 0% | 29% | 0% | 8.7 | 10.4 | |
| Ethylene | 7% | 33% | 40% | 0% | 20% | 0% | 7.3 | 9.5 | |
| Ethylene glycol | 21% | 36% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 0% | 6.1 | 7.8 | |
| Glycerine | 14% | 50% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 0% | 5.4 | 7.7 | |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 20% | 60% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.6 | 1.9 |
| LAS | 13% | 38% | 25% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 7.0 | 9.8 | |
| Methanol | 17% | 52% | 17% | 4% | 9% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.2 | |
| Phenol | 0% | 44% | 33% | 0% | 22% | 0% | 5.5 | 9.9 | |
| Soda ash | 15% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 6.0 | 6.4 | |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 14% | 57% | 14% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 5.9 | 6.9 | |
| Styrene | 7% | 50% | 29% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 8.1 | 7.7 | |
| Sulfuric acid | 19% | 63% | 11% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 |
| Titanium dioxide | 0% | 38% | 38% | 0% | 19% | 6% | 12.2 | 11.3 | |
| Xylenes | 25% | 45% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 4.6 | 7.6 | |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 0% | 29% | 29% | 14% | 29% | 0% | 10.2 | 12.8 | |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 12% | 29% | 41% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 9.6 | 8.3 | 5.8 |
| LLDPE | 14% | 21% | 50% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 10.1 | 7.8 | 6.5 |
| HDPE injection molding | 17% | 17% | 44% | 17% | 6% | 0% | 12.0 | 8.2 | 11.3 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 13% | 27% | 40% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 8.2 | 8.0 | 2.8 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 0% | 50% | 33% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 |
| Polystyrene | 5% | 32% | 47% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 7.7 | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| Polypropylene | 10% | 40% | 35% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 10.4 | 7.1 | 14.0 |
| Polyols | 13% | 38% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12.4 | 5.4 | 3.5 |
| Isocyonates | 10% | 50% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8.3 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Polycarbonate | 11% | 17% | 39% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 15.6 | 10.0 | 14.3 |
| Nylon | 16% | 26% | 42% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 9.4 | 7.3 | 5.8 |
| Acetal | 25% | 25% | 42% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8.1 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 8% | 38% | 38% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 8.9 | 7.4 | 5.8 |
| Elastomers | 14% | 29% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 7.8 | 6.7 | 5.8 |
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Purchasing's Leadtimes may be reproduced for use by other departments. © 2001 Purchasing Magazine.
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Negotiating advantage remains firmly with buyers
in
typically cutthroat markets.
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