Buyers of aluminum products report that purchasing from distributors has been lower than usual this year, and now there is proof. The National Association of Aluminum Distributors (NAAD) has just released a revised monthly sampling of service center locations, which allows the trade group to upgrade its indexes tracking shipments and inventories. The NAAD data show that June shipments were 25% lower than June 2000 and 32% lower than May 2000, which was the peak for this economic cycle. Between May and June of this year, the index fell 13%, compared to an average 4-5% May-to-June shipment decline over the past seven years. While distributors have been trying to deplete inventories to match weaker demand, NAAD's inventory index shows there is still plenty of metal available to buyers. The June index number is 16% below the cyclical peak set in July 2000, but the amount of metal in inventory—an average 3.8 months worth of supply through June—is still higher than the 3.4 months average recorded for all of 2000.

stundza@cahners.com