Signs point to trend shift
By Staff -- Purchasing, 2/7/2002
On average, packaging suppliers are delivering products 12% faster than year ago. MRO distributors and industrial equipment sellers are delivering 15% faster. Steel deliveries are arriving in 9% less time. Deliveries of nonferrous metals are 5% faster, metals fabricators and plastic resins processors are delivering 6% faster, while plastics molders are beating year-ago delivery speeds by an average of 4%. That said, it is noteworthy that leadtimes for some specific materials and component categories are starting to reverse trend, although not yet markedly enough to influence the composites. Comparing most recent three-month averages (Nov-Jan) to prior three-month averages (Aug-Oct), leads are actually longer in nearly half (78 out of 168) categories tracked by P URCHASING . In electronics, the three-month leadtime averages are longer in 36 out of 41 component categories. Upshot: These subtle trend reversals suggest that supplies are coming back in to line with demand. And, with pricetags as weak as they are, suppliers won't be rushing to restart idled production capacity, especially where startup/shutdown costs run high, meaning leadtimes should continue to stretch gradually so long as nascent the economic recovery remains on track.
| 1. | Gold | 89.6% |
| 2. | Acetic acid | 51.3% |
| 3. | Hydrogen peroxide | 46.4% |
| 4. | Polyols | 43.1% |
| 5. | Sulfuric acid | 41.6% |
| 6. | Isocyonates | 38.8% |
| 7. | Caustic soda | 35.7% |
| 8. | Silver | 27.5% |
| 9. | Copper wire | 21.6% |
| 10. | Aluminum wire | 19.6% |
| 1. | Palladium | -35.3% |
| 2. | Heavy structurals | -31.1% |
| 3. | Speed reducers | -30.6% |
| 4. | Polystyrene | -27.7% |
| 5. | Hot-dipped galvanized | -25.1% |
| 6. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -25.0% |
| 7. | Motor controls | -24.6% |
| 8. | Gears | -23.3% |
| 9. | Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -23.3% |
| 10. | Polyester, thermoplastic | -19.8% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr.ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 23% | 38% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.3 | - |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 33% | 44% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 5.9 | - |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 22% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.6 | - |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.5 | - |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 22% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 6.5 | - |
| SRAM: 256 K | 20% | 40% | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 8.8 | - |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 17% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.9 | - |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 18% | 45% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 5.9 | - |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 20% | 40% | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 5.9 | - |
| Logic: Bipolar | 17% | 58% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 6.7 | - |
| Logic: CMOS | 13% | 60% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 6.2 | - |
| MPU: 32-bit | 10% | 50% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 6.3 | - |
| MPU: 16-bit | 8% | 58% | 17% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 6.7 | - |
| Zener | 22% | 56% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 5.1 | - |
| Thyristor | 31% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.7 | - |
| Small-signal transistors | 32% | 47% | 16% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.6 | - |
| MOSFET | 20% | 53% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.6 | - |
| Analog digital converters | 13% | 40% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 8.2 | - |
| Digital/analog converters | 12% | 53% | 24% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 7.2 | - |
| Network resistors | 22% | 50% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.6 | - |
| Thick film chip resistors | 21% | 47% | 16% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 4.9 | - |
| Carbon film resistors | 22% | 50% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.8 | - |
| Wirewound resistors | 20% | 40% | 30% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 4.7 | - |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 14% | 55% | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 6.0 | - |
| Film capacitors | 14% | 43% | 33% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 6.2 | 4.8 | - |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 11% | 42% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6.1 | 7.1 | - |
| D-SUB connectors | 24% | 47% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 3.9 | - |
| PLCC connectors | 31% | 38% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.0 | - |
| PCB connectors | 20% | 47% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 4.5 | - |
| DIP switches | 22% | 33% | 39% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.6 | - |
| Pushbutton switches | 37% | 43% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 6.0 | - |
| Slide switches | 23% | 50% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.4 | - |
| General purpose relays | 39% | 43% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 5.0 | - |
| Solid state relays | 25% | 45% | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.7 | - |
| NiCd batteries | 40% | 40% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 6.2 | - |
| NiMH batteries | 40% | 40% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 6.9 | - |
| Li-ion batteries | 17% | 58% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 6.2 | - |
| Switcher power supplies | 20% | 48% | 24% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 9.0 | - |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 8% | 76% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.4 | - |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 7% | 75% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 6.5 | - |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 10% | 62% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 6.1 | - |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 54% | 41% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| CR sheet & strip | 46% | 42% | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 46% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Electrogalvanized | 32% | 44% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 3.5 | 4.4 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 38% | 36% | 24% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.5 | 5.4 |
| Other coated sheet | 28% | 48% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 3.6 | 5.0 |
| HR bars | 54% | 33% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| CF bars | 52% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Stainless bars | 56% | 32% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 32% | 61% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Stainless plate | 41% | 49% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Light structurals | 53% | 42% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Heavy structurals | 39% | 44% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.1 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 24% | 53% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Line pipe & tube | 33% | 54% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 38% | 48% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.1 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 36% | 57% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.8 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 44% | 44% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 28% | 61% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 38% | 56% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 59% | 34% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.8 | 2.7 |
| Copper tube | 32% | 59% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.5 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 40% | 46% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| Aluminum plate | 49% | 41% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Aluminum tube | 31% | 59% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Titanium sheet | 13% | 50% | 19% | 13% | 0% | 6% | 7.4 | 6.3 | 8.8 |
| Titanium plate | 14% | 50% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 7% | 7.1 | 8.1 | 8.6 |
| Titanium bars | 18% | 47% | 18% | 12% | 0% | 6% | 7.0 | 7.8 | 7.8 |
| Gold | 30% | 50% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 8.4 | 3.1 |
| Silver | 18% | 73% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 |
| Platinum | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 8.5 | 11.8 |
| Palladium | 25% | 63% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 13% | 53% | 27% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 5.8 | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 9% | 55% | 27% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 6.5 | 5.3 | 11.0 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 0% | 55% | 18% | 0% | 18% | 9% | 11.2 | 12.9 | 12.4 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 6% | 74% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| Forgings | 0% | 50% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 6.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Magnet wire | 27% | 50% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.2 |
| Gray iron castings | 5% | 51% | 37% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.9 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Ductile iron castings | 3% | 50% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 7.8 | 6.4 |
| Investment castings | 0% | 44% | 38% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 7.5 | 11.8 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 0% | 52% | 35% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Steel wire | 24% | 52% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.5 |
| Copper wire | 25% | 60% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 |
| Aluminum wire | 32% | 50% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 11% | 75% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| Blow molded plastics | 10% | 72% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.5 | 6.1 |
| Extruded plastics | 4% | 80% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 7% | 70% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 5.4 | 5.6 |
| Seals & rings | 33% | 55% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Flat belting | 30% | 53% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| Rubber hose | 40% | 55% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 44% | 43% | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.1 | 5.8 |
| Motor controls | 38% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.7 | 4.6 |
| Gears | 30% | 51% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.2 | 6.0 |
| Lighting fixtures | 57% | 43% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Temperature controls | 39% | 57% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Test instruments | 39% | 57% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 43% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Special fasteners | 25% | 55% | 12% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.8 |
| Speed reducers | 29% | 62% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 61% | 39% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Grinding wheel | 55% | 39% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Lubricants | 72% | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.5 | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Adhesives | 66% | 33% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Lift truck batteries | 52% | 43% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 35% | 65% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| Corrugated medium | 40% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Containerboard | 33% | 68% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Corrugated containers | 39% | 61% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Folding cartons | 34% | 62% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Multiwall bags | 50% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| Bags & liners | 56% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.0 | - |
| Steel drums | 50% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| Plastic drums | 22% | 78% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.5 | - |
| Fiber drums | 38% | 57% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.8 | - |
| IBCs | 25% | 75% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.8 | - |
| FIBCs | 20% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.8 | - |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 9% | 31% | 26% | 29% | 3% | 3% | 9.4 | 6.5 | 6.1 |
| Filters | 57% | 32% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.0 | - |
| Pumps | 23% | 54% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.3 |
| Seals & gaskets | 45% | 48% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.6 | - |
| Valves | 37% | 49% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Pressure instruments | 30% | 52% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.0 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 9% | 36% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.7 | 6.5 | 3.8 |
| Benzene | 11% | 22% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 8.3 | - |
| Carbon black | 7% | 21% | 50% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 8.1 | 9.3 | - |
| Caustic soda | 23% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 |
| Chlorine | 11% | 22% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 7.3 | - |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 14% | 0% | 86% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 12.0 | - |
| Ethylene | 11% | 33% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.7 | 9.9 | - |
| Ethylene glycol | 27% | 18% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 9.0 | - |
| Glycerine | 15% | 38% | 46% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 9.4 | - |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 33% | 33% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 |
| LAS | 20% | 0% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.5 | 7.5 | - |
| Methanol | 31% | 15% | 54% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 10.3 | - |
| Phenol | 22% | 22% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 12.0 | - |
| Soda ash | 15% | 31% | 54% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 10.2 | - |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 22% | 22% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 8.3 | - |
| Styrene | 15% | 46% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 9.9 | - |
| Sulfuric acid | 42% | 32% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 |
| Titanium dioxide | 0% | 25% | 50% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 11.2 | 11.9 | - |
| Xylenes | 29% | 29% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 7.9 | - |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 14% | 0% | 86% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 13.1 | - |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 13% | 47% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 6.7 | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| LLDPE | 17% | 25% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 7.9 | 8.7 | 9.9 |
| HDPE injection molding | 11% | 33% | 33% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 8.8 | 13.0 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 17% | 42% | 33% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 7.7 | 8.6 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 7% | 57% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 9.5 | 7.3 |
| Polystyrene | 21% | 36% | 36% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 8.0 | 10.5 |
| Polypropylene | 16% | 47% | 26% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 6.0 | 7.9 | 9.3 |
| Polyols | 11% | 67% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 |
| Isocyonates | 11% | 56% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.5 | 11.4 | 9.5 |
| Polycarbonate | 23% | 31% | 31% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| Nylon | 11% | 50% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 8.3 | 7.1 |
| Acetal | 8% | 50% | 25% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 6.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 7% | 36% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 6.4 | 8.3 | 8.3 |
| Elastomers | 12% | 47% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 8.2 | 7.0 |
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