• Look for a slow recovery in manufacturing to continue at least into the summer. Buyers tell PURCHASING they will increase buying through May, and possibly longer. Sudden tightness in certain chemicals and plastics and a severe shortage in coated sheet steel caused by new tariffs on steel imports sparked an immediate turnaround in sentiment. Buying plans indicators that moved into positive territory last month for the first time in a year were steel, molded plastics, aluminum and fabricated metals.

• Security checks still plague chemical deliveries. A Liquid Transport truck going from South Carolina to Michigan was recently stopped four times. There were more than 30 trucks queued at one of the stops. Creativity in planning routes can reduce security-related slowdowns. See related story on page 37.

• Explore business opportunities in China, which is rapidly becoming a manufacturing powerhouse. Start with Web sites run by the U.S.-China Business Council (www.uschina.org), the American Chamber of Commerce in China (www.amcham china.org.cn) and the Beijing Trade Exchange (beijingtrade.com).

• Expect moderate increases in interest rates during the year. The prime rate is expected to move up a little more than 100 basis points(one percentage point), but remain below 6%. Excess manufacturing capacity will help keep a lid on prices.

• Machinery sales are still lagging, but may get a boost from a federal economic stimulus bill. Proposals would allow extra depreciation for equipment purchased after Sept. 10, 2001. Close to one-third of the outlay could be deducted right away.

• Get Murray on Law on your VCR. PURCHASING columnist Dr. John E. Murray, Jr., president of Pittsburgh-based Duquesne University and former Dean of the School of Law at the University of Pittsburgh, has created a videotape series that covers his two-day seminar on Purchasing and Law, and includes over 10 hours of lecture material. Also included with the video series is a comprehensive 100-page manual and case study workbook. Produced by NAPM Pittsburgh in cooperation with Dr. Murray, the series is discounted for ISM members ($795 for ISM members and $895 for nonmembers). To purchase by mail, contact Purchasing Law Video, M/S P.M., 211 Blaze Dr., Glenshaw, PA 15118; by phone, 412-492-8140, ext. 1234, fax 412-492-8141, e-mail purlaw@napm-pittsburgh.org.

Tracking the economy