Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says the recession is over and a subdued expansion is beginning. "Recent statistical evidence increasingly suggests that an economic expansion is already well under way," Greenspan told the Senate Banking Committee in March. Many buyers disagree. While PURCHASING's various Business Survey data series are starting to show definite improvements over late-2001 levels and some indexes have even edged into positive territory (see chart), the comments received from buyers tell a less sanguine story.

Various synonyms—sluggish, slow, depressed, weak, flat and down—still dominate buyers' comments about business conditions.

• "Business remains slow, and below expectations," says the purchasing manager for an industrial lighting manufacturer in Texas.
• "We are bouncing along the bottom," says the operations director of an Oregon-based test, measurement and monitoring equipment manufacturer. "There is no clear trend yet, up or down."
• The buyer for a producer of industrial textiles in North Carolina agrees that "the general economic conditions that affect company sales remain pretty dismal."
• The supply chain manager for a plastic parts manufacturer in California says: "Flat-to-down economic trends continue to impact our business negatively."

Economists suggest that capital goods makers should see new business soon, but that isn't happening either. "Our business fell off the shelf 18 months ago and we see no signs of recovery," says the purchasing executive at a Nebraska-based metal fabrications firm. "We just don't see a recovery." The chairman of the National Association of Manufacturers echoes his comments. "We're struggling month to month," says Don Wainwright, chairman and chief executive of St. Louis-based metal fabricator Wainwright Industries Inc. "There's just a paralysis out there. Nobody wants to take a chance."

"We think we have bottomed out, but won't know for sure until we see the next few months worth of sales orders," says the purchasing manager for an electrical and electronics equipment maker in Indiana.

Buyers working for plants that make consumer products are waiting for warmer weather to spark a turnaround in their businesses. "We are ready for the turnaround," says the purchasing director for a food company in Missouri, echoing the sentiments of many buyers.

Underscoring stronger-than-expected automotive sales this past winter, both General Motors and Ford have increased second-quarter North American production by 4% over depressed first quarter assembly levels. This has buoyed the outlooks of some raw materials suppliers in the steel, aluminum and copper sectors. However, the purchasing director for an automotive parts supplier in Michigan says: "Even with auto assembly rising, second quarter bookings for parts are down when compared to last year." The buyer at another Michigan auto parts maker says flatly: "Business will be down all year."

Buyers in aerospace-related parts and materials businesses have given up hopes for a 2002 sales rebound. The senior materials analyst at a major manufacturer of aerospace systems says: "Sept. 11 was devastating to the aerospace business. Commercial orders have been delayed or cancelled. There aren't enough military orders to fill the void. We don't see a turnaround until 2004-2005."

The purchasing director for an industrial battery-manufacturing firm in Pennsylvania sums up his firm's operations: "The telecommunications equipment business is very slow."

Even among those who believe business is improving there is no ringing endorsement for the economy. The purchasing manager for an industrial electronics equipment maker in North Carolina says: "There seems to be a sight uptick in demand because of a better near-term outlook for business." But, he admits, "Business is sporadic. One month, it's very good. The next month, it's bad." The purchasing agent for a custom sheet metal company in Indiana says that "while bookings rebounded in January and February from fourth quarter levels, sales for March and April deliveries fell off pace."

While buyers keep hoping for a pickup in second quarter business that will translate into expanded manufacturing and increased purchasing, there's little empirical evidence suggesting it will happen. In fact, numerous buyers admit they are basing their optimism more on media reports of an economic rally than on actual sales bookings for April-June deliveries at their firms. "Our sales were down through March," says the purchasing manager for a New York firm that makes weather-protection structures, "but we are optimistic about the second quarter."