Buyers' markets close shop
Staff -- Purchasing, 5/2/2002
The steel market is feeling noticeably tighter to a majority of buyers in the U.S. Annual rate of change for PURCHASING's steel leadtimes composite, which tracks tension between supply and demand, has risen from a low of -13.5% last July to a near-neutral -2.9% in April 2002. Flat rolled grades are the chief culprit. After shrinking nearly 12% in 2001, national leadtimes for hot-rolled sheet and strip have gone out by a week and half on average since December. Ditto for cold-rolled sheet. And while the supplier delivery speed for coated sheet over the last 12 months is still averaging below its year-ago levels, the actual leadtime for hot-dip galvanized has nearly doubled in just the past four months.
Rate-of-change for PURCHASING's plastic resins composite surged into positive territory in April 2002, but this belies some big month-to-month shrinkage between March and April, which could suggest that producers' collective resolve to limit supplies and boost prices has started to crack. Example: PURCHASING's national average leadtime for linear low-density polyethylene (LDPE) was only half as long in April as it was in March. Caveat: The leadtime data can be volatile from month to month, so two or three months will be needed to establish a renewed downtrend for resins leadtimes. Stay tuned.
| 1. | Gold | 81.3% |
| 2. | Polyols | 69.7% |
| 3. | Hydrogen peroxide | 58.7% |
| 4. | Acetic acid | 57.6% |
| 5. | Aluminum wire | 37.2% |
| 6. | Isocyonates | 33.5% |
| 7. | Sulfuric acid | 33.2% |
| 8. | Copper Wire | 28.7% |
| 9. | Pressure pipe & tube | 27.3% |
| 10. | Silver | 25.1% |
| 1. | Palladium | -47.6% |
| 2. | Platinum | -42.2% |
| 3. | Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -33.8% |
| 4. | Speed reducers | -32.4% |
| 5. | Gears | -28.7% |
| 6. | Motor controls | -28.1% |
| 7. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -27.1% |
| 8. | Heavy structurals | -24.9% |
| 9. | Pumps | -24.0% |
| 10. | Lift truck batteries | -23.6% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 23% | 69% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 5.1 | - |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 17% | 75% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | - |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.2 | - |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | - |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | - |
| SRAM: 256 K | 10% | 80% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.2 | - |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | - |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 27% | 64% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 4.5 | - |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.6 | - |
| Logic: Bipolar | 20% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 4.2 | - |
| Logic: CMOS | 33% | 67% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.9 | - |
| MPU: 32-bit | 20% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 5.5 | - |
| MPU: 16-bit | 40% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 4.6 | - |
| Zener | 30% | 70% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 3.8 | - |
| Thyristor | 30% | 70% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 4.2 | - |
| Small-signal transistors | 42% | 58% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 4.2 | - |
| MOSFET | 25% | 67% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 4.3 | - |
| Analog digital converters | 15% | 77% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.3 | - |
| Digital/analog converters | 18% | 82% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.3 | - |
| Network resistors | 36% | 64% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.5 | - |
| Thick film chip resistors | 23% | 77% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.5 | - |
| Carbon film resistors | 44% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.9 | - |
| Wirewound resistors | 33% | 60% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 4.4 | - |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 24% | 65% | 0% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.3 | - |
| Film capacitors | 31% | 56% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 4.2 | - |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 29% | 57% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.4 | - |
| D-SUB connectors | 20% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.6 | - |
| PLCC connectors | 18% | 55% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 3.7 | - |
| PCB connectors | 14% | 57% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 4.2 | - |
| DIP switches | 15% | 54% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.2 | - |
| Pushbutton switches | 27% | 50% | 18% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.3 | - |
| Slide switches | 31% | 62% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 4.8 | - |
| General purpose relays | 40% | 50% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.8 | - |
| Solid state relays | 41% | 47% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.9 | - |
| NiCd batteries | 39% | 50% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.4 | - |
| NiMH batteries | 47% | 40% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.5 | - |
| Li-ion batteries | 27% | 45% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.3 | - |
| Switcher power supplies | 24% | 41% | 24% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.6 | - |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 0% | 77% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.6 | - |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 0% | 67% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 4.6 | - |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 0% | 68% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.0 | - |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 42% | 35% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| CR sheet & strip | 40% | 36% | 17% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 43% | 38% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Electrogalvanized | 39% | 33% | 14% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 26% | 36% | 17% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 6.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| Other coated sheet | 25% | 41% | 22% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| HR bars | 56% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| CF bars | 57% | 38% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| Stainless bars | 51% | 36% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.3 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 49% | 40% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.0 | 2.9 |
| Stainless plate | 43% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Light structurals | 55% | 36% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Heavy structurals | 21% | 62% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.3 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 35% | 53% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Line pipe & tube | 57% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 46% | 38% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.4 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 41% | 50% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 38% | 50% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 39% | 56% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 51% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.3 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 64% | 32% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Copper tube | 36% | 48% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 4.1 | 3.5 | 3.0 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 31% | 51% | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Aluminum plate | 49% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.9 | 2.9 |
| Aluminum tube | 41% | 41% | 16% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3.6 | 2.6 | 2.9 |
| Titanium sheet | 21% | 43% | 29% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.3 | 6.8 |
| Titanium plate | 23% | 31% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 8% | 7.5 | 5.6 | 8.9 |
| Titanium bars | 20% | 47% | 27% | 0% | 7% | 0% | 5.6 | 5.3 | 6.8 |
| Gold | 56% | 44% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
| Silver | 50% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.0 |
| Platinum | 36% | 64% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.7 | 8.8 |
| Palladium | 40% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 10.5 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 17% | 54% | 17% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 6.1 | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 27% | 36% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.8 | 7.4 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 21% | 43% | 14% | 7% | 14% | 0% | 7.5 | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 8% | 61% | 30% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| Forgings | 2% | 49% | 43% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.1 |
| Magnet wire | 22% | 61% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Gray iron castings | 5% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.6 |
| Ductile iron castings | 14% | 41% | 41% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Investment castings | 3% | 30% | 51% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 7.7 | 7.2 | 9.3 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 7% | 41% | 43% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.5 | 7.0 |
| Steel wire | 27% | 57% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Copper wire | 32% | 52% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 |
| Aluminum wire | 39% | 39% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 9% | 76% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| Blow molded plastics | 7% | 83% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Extruded plastics | 15% | 75% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 10% | 81% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Seals & rings | 39% | 43% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Flat belting | 55% | 34% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 |
| Rubber hose | 57% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 52% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Motor controls | 39% | 58% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 |
| Gears | 43% | 42% | 13% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| Lighting fixtures | 74% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Temperature controls | 53% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Test instruments | 47% | 39% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 68% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| Special fasteners | 23% | 55% | 15% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.0 | 5.5 |
| Speed reducers | 40% | 53% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 75% | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Grinding wheel | 70% | 23% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Lubricants | 85% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Adhesives | 73% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Lift truck batteries | 43% | 46% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 33% | 64% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 |
| Corrugated medium | 43% | 55% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Containerboard | 50% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Corrugated containers | 37% | 61% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.6 |
| Folding cartons | 43% | 52% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Multiwall bags | 44% | 40% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Bags & liners | 57% | 39% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.9 | 1.9 | - |
| Steel drums | 63% | 34% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| Plastic drums | 54% | 42% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.1 | 2.4 | - |
| Fiber drums | 46% | 50% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.5 | - |
| IBCs | 42% | 50% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.9 | - |
| FIBCs | 38% | 50% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.2 | - |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 12% | 27% | 39% | 18% | 3% | 0% | 7.8 | 7.5 | 5.7 |
| Filters | 50% | 35% | 12% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.0 | - |
| Pumps | 42% | 44% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.9 | 5.0 |
| Seals & gaskets | 53% | 36% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.4 | - |
| Valves | 42% | 45% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.1 |
| Pressure instruments | 30% | 60% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 12% | 59% | 24% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 5.5 | 6.1 | 2.8 |
| Benzene | 0% | 58% | 25% | 8% | 8% | 0% | 7.5 | 7.3 | - |
| Carbon black | 5% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 8.0 | 7.6 | - |
| Caustic soda | 20% | 67% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Chlorine | 7% | 64% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 6.4 | 7.2 | - |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 0% | 30% | 50% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 9.2 | 8.7 | - |
| Ethylene | 14% | 50% | 14% | 14% | 7% | 0% | 7.0 | 6.4 | - |
| Ethylene glycol | 9% | 64% | 23% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.7 | - |
| Glycerine | 12% | 53% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 6.6 | 8.2 | - |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 25% | 56% | 13% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 |
| LAS | 0% | 57% | 29% | 0% | 14% | 0% | 7.9 | 9.2 | - |
| Methanol | 14% | 64% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.5 | - |
| Phenol | 0% | 56% | 33% | 0% | 11% | 0% | 7.4 | 9.8 | - |
| Soda ash | 25% | 55% | 10% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 4.9 | 6.3 | - |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 11% | 72% | 11% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 4.9 | 6.6 | - |
| Styrene | 0% | 64% | 27% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 6.7 | 8.9 | - |
| Sulfuric acid | 21% | 58% | 17% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 4.5 | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| Titanium dioxide | 0% | 22% | 50% | 6% | 22% | 0% | 11.3 | 11.8 | - |
| Xylenes | 4% | 74% | 17% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.0 | - |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 0% | 60% | 30% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 7.1 | 9.2 | - |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 13% | 56% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 10.3 | 6.6 |
| LLDPE | 19% | 38% | 31% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 7.1 | 10.5 | 5.9 |
| HDPE injection molding | 11% | 37% | 32% | 16% | 0% | 5% | 8.2 | 7.4 | 6.6 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 14% | 36% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 8.2 | 5.0 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 12% | 53% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 5.0 |
| Polystyrene | 13% | 40% | 40% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.7 | 9.2 | 4.3 |
| Polypropylene | 9% | 64% | 23% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 5.3 | 9.0 | 5.4 |
| Polyols | 10% | 60% | 30% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 7.4 | 3.8 |
| Isocyonates | 8% | 58% | 25% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Polycarbonate | 13% | 38% | 38% | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7.6 | 8.1 | 10.9 |
| Nylon | 14% | 36% | 36% | 5% | 9% | 0% | 7.3 | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| Acetal | 20% | 27% | 47% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.8 | 7.4 | 6.5 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 13% | 33% | 40% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 7.2 | 7.5 | 5.8 |
| Elastomers | 5% | 40% | 55% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 |
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