Once again, the best score in PURCHASING Magazine's annual Crystal Ball economic forecasting contest comes from PACCAR's Wayne Balsiger, the uncannily accurate senior purchasing analyst and systems manager from Bellevue, Wash., who has already won the contest three times and placed second on two other occasions.

A new rule, however, prohibits Balsiger from claiming any prize money in the 2001 contest, paving the way for three new money winners:

• Mark Miller of CNH Global (CASE) in Racine, Wis. ($500),
• Jason Tininenko, a purchasing manager at PACCAR, who has been breathing down Balsiger's neck for a few years now ($150), and
• Kenneth Glasser, a senior subcontracts administrator for Axcelis Technologies, a maker of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in Beverly, Mass. ($100).

Right off the bat, it needs to be said that the scores in PURCHASING's 2001 Crystal Ball contest were terrible. Coming off one of the longest and strongest economic recoveries in U.S. history, few believed the economy could go so far off track so fast in 2001. (Ironically, Balsiger predicted last spring that the 2001 scores would be high.)

Big trouble spots were the usual suspects-business investment, imports, and exports, plus industrial production. All of these indicators turned deeply negative in 2001 while all but a handful of forecasters last spring were still anticipating positive growth.

Chad Baribeau, a buyer for Rice Lake Weighing Systems in Rice Lake, Wis., had the smallest forecast variance on business investment. Nathan Meerbaum, director of purchasing for SIMKAR in Philadelphia got within a tenth of a point on industrial production. Fourth-place finisher Kenneth Glasser of Axcelis Technologies had the second-closest forecasts for both of these indicators, an accomplishment he attributes to his viewpoint in a high-tech capital equipment company. 'I knew early on that these numbers were going to be negative,' Glasser says.

CNH Global's Miller, meantime, owes his money win to being 'closest to the pin' on both the import and export forecasts. Miller is one of fewer than five forecasters to predict negative numbers for these indicators in 2001.

Miller's method: He pays close attention to reports from several different professional forecasting sources, looks at actual data that is released before the contest deadline, and considers business signals from within his own global manufacturing company. 'There's no magic bullet,' Miller says. 'Just plenty of research mixed with a bit of intuition.'

Quite a few of Miller's colleagues at CNH Global join him in the Top 50 this year. That's because, each year, he shares his background research (but not his forecasts) with purchasing folks around the company and encourages them to enter PURCHASING's contest. Instead of keeping the prize money, Miller says he's going to share the wealth with his organization, using the cash to 'make some well-deserved rewards around here.'

Despite big errors on a few indicators, many among the purchasing profession's most avid economic forecasters show surprising consistency in their relative contest rankings, demonstrating that, even when they are wrong, they're consistently less wrong than the rest of the pack.

Take Balsiger, for example. He won the 2000 Crystal Ball contest with an absolute forecast variance of just 5.1 (the sum of his absolute forecast variances across 12 economic indicators). In the 2001 contest, Balsiger's score jumped 12 whole points to 17.1. And yet, he still beat every other score, making 2001 his fourth technical win.

Miller boasts five Top 50 finishes in the last six contests (a feat accomplished by only seven people including Balsiger). Miller placed third in 1998 and 18th the year before.

Third-place finisher Tininenko first threw his hat into the ring back in 1997. (Rumor has it that a PACCAR purchasing supervisor offered a reward to anyone who could beat Balsiger). On his first outing, he took fourth place. Last year, he finished 13th, which brings his total of Top 50 placements to three and earns him a permanent spot on PURCHASING's informal consensus forecast panel. (PURCHASING will publish the Guru Club's consensus outlook in August, after the 2002 Crystal Ball contest closes.)

Olympic Steel's Frank Ruane takes fifth place in the 2001 contest. Since he started entering the contest in 1995, Ruane has placed no lower than eighth place, has won the contest outright on two occasions, and has taken second place (to Balsiger's first) on two other occasions.

Other honorable mentions in the 2001 contest go to:

• Bruce Robinson, Fuji Photo Film, seven consecutive Top 50 showings and six in the Top 25.
• Michael Adam, General American Door, five Top 50 placements in six years.
• Brian Schalk, Andis Co., five Top 50 showings and two fifth place claims in a six-year period.
• Dwight Schirmer, BOSE, four Top 25 showings since 1995.
• John Stamateris, LTV Steel Tubular Products, four consecutive Top 25 placements.
• Jim Bollnow, Wyckoff Chemical, four Top 50 showings in five years.
• David Buteau, NEPTCO, four consecutive Top 50 showings.
• Richard Doktor, Siemens Building Technologies, two consecutive Top 10 showings (placing seventh and eighth in 2000 and 2001, respectively).
• Robert Heimerman, Enron, four consecutive Top 50 showings and two Top 10 placements.
• Tony Kuchera, CNH Global, five nonconsecutive Top 50 placements with four in the Top 25.
• Nathan Meerbaum, SIMKAR, a second Top 10 showing and a third appearance in the Top 25.
• Gregory Modlinski, CNH Global three Top 50 showings including 2001.
• Andrew Weyker, Appleton Papers, three consecutive Top 50 showings with one first place and one 12th.

New inductees to the Guru Club (requiring two Top 50 finishes with one being in 2001) include: Kenneth Glasser, Axcelis Technologies (third place this year, 29th in 1998), Dennis Amberger, Mays Chemical Co., Ronald Cerminaro, U.S. Steel, Tom Grana, Emerson, Bob Greinke, Farnam Co., Robert Hanes, Sauko Investment Group, Ken Haney, Industrial Metals Products, Pete Haumersen, CNH Global, Scott Utka, Tru-Circle Precision, Rick Zuza, Allstate.

Click here  for a complete ranking of contest entries .