Production ramps back up
Staff -- Purchasing, 5/16/2002
PURCHASING's latest leadtime data covering electronic components show stretching in 85% of the categories tracked. But these data can be extremely volatile from month to month, especially during transitions from recession to recovery and vice versa. An act of "smoothing" the data, accomplished by looking at three-month averages instead of single months, reveals quite a different picture of markets for electronic components. In fact, nearly every component type tracked by PURCHASING displays the same trend: a distinct leadtime stretching between December and February followed by a distinct shrinking for the March-May period. The trends reflect, no doubt, some tightening as component manufacturers and OEMs expecting slow, if any, demand growth were caught off guard with too little inventory, followed by leadtime shrinking as component makers have fired up production lines and distributors boosted stocking levels according to more optimistic forecasts. Outlook: A more sustained shift to longer leads will occur when final demand—consumer spending and capital investment—begins to replace inventory replenishment as a growth driver.
| Raw data for latest month | Recent history: Weighted averages | Movement in latest month | ||||||||||||
| ELECTRONICS LEADTIMES | <1 wk | 2-5 wks | 6-10 wks | 11-20 wks | 21-30 wks | 30+ wks | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | |
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 0% | 78% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.5 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 | Stretch |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 0% | 71% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.8 | Stretch |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 17% | 67% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 3.8 | Stretch |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 14% | 57% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.4 | Stretch |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 17% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | Stretch |
| SRAM: 256 K | 14% | 29% | 57% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | Stretch |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 0% | 50% | 33% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 7.0 | Stretch |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 0% | 57% | 29% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 6.5 | Stretch |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 20% | 40% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 4.7 | Stretch |
| Logic: Bipolar | 13% | 63% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 4.3 | Stretch |
| Logic: CMOS | 33% | 56% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 3.0 | Stretch |
| MPU: 32-bit | 20% | 60% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 3.8 | Stretch |
| MPU: 16-bit | 0% | 60% | 40% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 5.3 | Stretch |
| Zener diode | 9% | 55% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 4.9 | Stretch |
| Thyristor | 25% | 13% | 63% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | Stretch |
| Small-signal transistors | 30% | 40% | 30% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 4.0 | Stretch |
| MOSFET | 42% | 25% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | Stretch |
| Analog digital converters | 25% | 38% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | Stretch |
| Digital/analog converters | 13% | 50% | 25% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 5.8 | Stretch |
| Network resistors | 17% | 50% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.5 | Stretch |
| Thick film chip resistors | 33% | 25% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 4.4 | Stretch |
| Carbon film resistors | 38% | 23% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 4.1 | Stretch |
| Wirewound resistors | 23% | 38% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | Stretch |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 22% | 44% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | Stretch |
| Film capacitors | 29% | 36% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | Stretch |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 7% | 57% | 21% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 6.0 | Stretch |
| D-SUB connectors | 20% | 60% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.8 | Stretch |
| PLCC connectors | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.9 | Shrink |
| PCB connectors | 21% | 64% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 3.5 | Shrink |
| DIP switches | 25% | 50% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | Shrink |
| Pushbutton switches | 44% | 33% | 22% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 3.2 | Shrink |
| Slide switches | 36% | 43% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 | Stretch |
| General purpose relays | 37% | 42% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 3.3 | Stretch |
| Solid state relays | 38% | 31% | 31% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.7 | Stretch |
| NiCd batteries | 18% | 45% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 4.6 | Stretch |
| NiMH batteries | 25% | 38% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 4.4 | Stretch |
| Li-ion batteries | 25% | 38% | 38% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | Stretch |
| Switcher power supplies | 25% | 50% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 4.3 | Shrink |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 15% | 70% | 10% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.6 | Stretch |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 12% | 76% | 6% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 4.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 4.7 | Shrink |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 12% | 47% | 35% | 0% | 6% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | Stretch |
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