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Worm has turned for leads

Staff -- Purchasing, 6/6/2002

Markets for most types of carbon steel—sheet, strip, bars, plate, light structurals, and tube—are undersupplied. Nonferrous metals markets remain heavily oversupplied, which helps to explain recent price weakness. Exceptions: copper tube, gold, and silver. In the fabricated metals segment, castings, stampings, and forgings are still oversupplied, but wire, especially aluminum and copper, is tightening rapidly. Plastics molding and extrusion capacity is still plentiful, although these markets are now moving back in the direction of balance. Meantime, leads for rubber-based products are starting to stretch against coordinated production cuts among the world's big natural rubber producers (Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia). Resin producers have gained the upper hand and they're using it to push prices. Tightest markets: PVC, elastomers, LDPE, LLDPE. Polyurethane materials, such as isocyonates and polyols, are very tight because of low inventories and plant maintenance shutdowns. MRO oversupply has gotten more pronounced since winter. Exceptions: Metalworking supplies such as cutting tool inserts and grinding wheels. Linerboard and corrugating medium are still loose, but corrugated containers are fast approaching balance, so buyers can expect price hike attempts as early as Q3.

Biggest gains
(annual rate-of-change)
1.Polyols87.3%
2.Gold80.9%
3.Acetic acid43.9%
4.Isocyonates43.8%
5.Hydrogen peroxide40.8%
6.Aluminum wire35.7%
7.Silver29.5%
8.Copper Wire24.6%
9.Pressure instruments24.1%
10.Steel pressure pipe & tube22.3%

Biggest drops
(annual rate-of-change)
1.Palladium-45.7%
2.Platinum-39.4%
3.Electric motors: 1-30 HP-31.8%
4.Speed reducers-29.4%
5.Motor controls-26.5%
6.Gears-25.6%
7.Investment castings-21.7%
8.Polycarbonates-20.7%
9.HDPE injection molding-20.7%
10.Heavy steel structurals-20.2%

Leadtimes
<1 wk.2-5 wks.6-10 wks.11-20 wks.21-30 wks.30+ wks.Avg. wk. Mo. ago Yr. ago
ELECTRONICS
DRAM: 128 Mb0%78%22%0%0%0%4.53.25.9
DRAM: 64 Mb0%71%29%0%0%0%4.83.45.2
DRAM: 16 Mb17%67%17%0%0%0%3.83.45.6
SRAM: 4 Mb14%57%29%0%0%0%4.43.45.0
SRAM: 1 Mb17%50%33%0%0%0%4.53.45.0
SRAM: 256 K14%29%57%0%0%0%5.63.78.2
Flash: 32 Mb0%50%33%17%0%0%7.03.45.3
Flash: 16 Mb0%57%29%14%0%0%6.53.14.1
Flash: 8 Mb20%40%40%0%0%0%4.73.44.4
Logic: Bipolar13%63%25%0%0%0%4.32.98.0
Logic: CMOS33%56%11%0%0%0%3.02.56.6
MPU: 32-bit20%60%20%0%0%0%3.82.95.8
MPU: 16-bit0%60%40%0%0%0%5.32.34.8
Zener diode9%55%36%0%0%0%4.92.66.4
Thyristor25%13%63%0%0%0%5.62.66.1
Small-signal transistors30%40%30%0%0%0%4.02.36.9
MOSFET42%25%33%0%0%0%3.83.19.6
Analog digital converters25%38%25%13%0%0%5.43.49.9
Digital/analog converters13%50%25%13%0%0%5.83.08.4
Network resistors17%50%33%0%0%0%4.52.44.2
Thick film chip resistors33%25%42%0%0%0%4.42.85.9
Carbon film resistors38%23%38%0%0%0%4.12.23.7
Wirewound resistors23%38%38%0%0%0%4.52.82.9
Ceramic chip capacitors22%44%33%0%0%0%4.34.27.4
Film capacitors29%36%36%0%0%0%4.34.15.8
Tantalum chip capacitors7%57%21%14%0%0%6.03.811.0
D-SUB connectors20%60%20%0%0%0%3.83.44.3
PLCC connectors25%50%25%0%0%0%3.94.23.7
PCB connectors21%64%14%0%0%0%3.54.43.7
DIP switches25%50%25%0%0%0%3.95.04.9
Pushbutton switches44%33%22%0%0%0%3.24.55.5
Slide switches36%43%21%0%0%0%3.42.93.4
General purpose relays37%42%21%0%0%0%3.32.83.3
Solid state relays38%31%31%0%0%0%3.72.84.0
NiCd batteries18%45%36%0%0%0%4.62.83.1
NiMH batteries25%38%38%0%0%0%4.42.74.7
Li-ion batteries25%38%38%0%0%0%4.43.94.3
Switcher power supplies25%50%19%6%0%0%4.35.33.9
Single sided Printed circuit boards15%70%10%0%5%0%4.64.53.8
Double sided Printed circuit boards12%76%6%0%6%0%4.75.43.6
Multi-layer printed Circuit boards12%47%35%0%6%0%6.04.94.9
STEEL
HR sheet & strip34%38%15%11%1%0%4.83.72.5
CR sheet & strip33%40%16%11%0%0%4.63.92.9
Stainless sheet & strip27%48%17%8%0%0%4.43.43.0
Electrogalvanized16%38%16%22%9%0%8.44.64.4
Hot-dipped galvanized17%43%15%21%4%0%7.16.13.4
Other coated sheet7%52%22%11%7%0%7.25.23.9
HR bars54%30%13%1%1%0%3.02.42.6
CF bars51%35%7%4%1%0%3.12.22.7
Stainless bars47%34%13%6%0%0%3.43.33.7
Carbon & alloy plate29%51%16%4%0%0%3.82.53.1
Stainless plate32%46%22%0%0%0%3.52.62.8
Light structurals52%36%10%2%0%0%2.62.42.1
Heavy structurals30%50%17%3%0%0%3.83.63.0
Oil country tubular goods18%64%18%0%0%0%3.83.03.9
Line pipe & tube53%42%5%0%0%0%2.22.02.1
Pressure pipe & tube39%48%13%0%0%0%2.93.13.0
Mechanical pipe & tube33%63%4%0%0%0%2.72.72.3
Structural pipe & tube46%46%8%0%0%0%2.52.91.9
NONFERROUS METALS
Copper sheet & strip35%48%18%0%0%0%3.22.54.0
Brass sheet & strip41%52%7%0%0%0%2.62.33.2
Free-cutting brass rod64%25%11%0%0%0%2.11.72.1
Copper tube41%50%9%0%0%0%2.74.12.8
Aluminum sheet & strip30%49%21%0%0%0%3.53.53.5
Aluminum plate33%56%8%3%0%0%3.22.33.8
Aluminum tube26%59%12%3%0%0%3.63.63.3
Titanium sheet0%47%33%13%7%0%8.15.07.3
Titanium plate0%36%36%18%0%9%10.27.58.0
Titanium bars0%50%42%8%0%0%6.45.68.2
Gold38%38%25%0%0%0%3.51.83.0
Silver22%44%33%0%0%0%4.32.53.4
Platinum14%57%29%0%0%0%4.42.44.0
Palladium25%50%25%0%0%0%3.92.34.0
Nickel-based superalloys11%32%32%21%0%5%8.86.16.7
Cobalt-based superalloys11%33%33%22%0%0%7.34.32.9
Titanium-based superalloys0%33%44%11%11%0%9.37.56.2
FABRICATED METALS
Stampings4%67%24%3%1%0%5.14.85.1
Forgings3%37%50%8%3%0%7.26.37.6
Magnet wire20%67%13%0%0%0%3.53.63.7
Gray iron castings2%52%38%5%0%2%6.56.15.7
Ductile iron castings3%48%38%7%0%3%7.05.86.5
Investment castings0%36%47%11%3%3%8.47.79.1
Die castings (all kinds)5%46%41%8%0%0%6.16.36.0
Steel wire50%36%11%4%0%0%2.93.53.3
Copper wire54%46%0%0%0%0%1.93.32.8
Aluminum wire46%54%0%0%0%0%2.13.32.6
PLASTIC & RUBBER
Injection molded plastics2%87%9%0%2%0%4.33.94.1
Blow molded plastics0%78%13%4%4%0%5.63.84.8
Extruded plastics8%75%14%3%0%0%4.23.54.2
Compression mold. plastics0%71%24%0%6%0%5.93.66.0
Seals & rings36%52%7%2%0%2%3.83.93.4
Flat belting48%35%13%0%4%0%3.62.32.4
Rubber hose50%40%5%3%3%0%3.12.01.8
MRO
Electric motors: 1-30 HP54%31%13%2%0%0%2.72.42.7
Motor controls34%55%11%0%0%0%3.02.52.9
Gears48%36%9%5%2%0%3.53.23.1
Lighting fixtures78%18%2%2%0%0%1.51.51.0
Temperature controls49%36%15%0%0%0%2.72.21.8
Test instruments38%54%8%0%0%0%2.72.72.4
Nonfriction bearings60%18%23%0%0%0%2.72.02.4
Special fasteners26%52%17%6%0%0%4.14.33.9
Speed reducers42%47%8%3%0%0%2.92.62.5
Cutting tool inserts61%33%7%0%0%0%2.01.41.7
Grinding wheel72%17%11%0%0%0%1.91.81.9
Lubricants81%14%5%0%0%0%1.31.31.2
Adhesives78%20%2%0%0%0%1.31.51.6
Lift truck batteries53%26%18%3%0%0%3.12.71.9
PACKAGING
Linerboard42%56%3%0%0%0%2.42.62.3
Corrugated medium43%51%5%0%0%0%2.42.32.1
Containerboard36%61%3%0%0%0%2.52.12.2
Corrugated containers41%55%4%0%0%0%2.42.52.3
Folding cartons36%57%7%0%0%0%2.72.42.5
Multiwall bags43%48%9%0%0%0%2.62.92.2
Bags & liners54%36%10%0%0%0%2.31.92.1
Steel drums50%32%18%0%0%0%2.81.81.7
Plastic drums56%33%11%0%0%0%2.32.11.9
Fiber drums60%20%20%0%0%0%2.62.32
IBCs50%38%13%0%0%0%2.62.62.2
FIBCs40%40%20%0%0%0%3.22.92.3
EQUIPMENT
Lift trucks14%36%18%23%0%9%9.57.87.2
Filters54%27%19%0%0%0%2.82.92
Pumps23%57%20%0%0%0%3.73.13.0
Seals & gaskets50%39%11%0%0%0%2.52.42.1
Valves36%52%6%6%0%0%3.43.22.3
Pressure instruments32%55%9%0%5%0%4.03.12.6
<1 dy.1-5 dy.6-10 dy.11-20 dy.21-30 dy.30+ dy.Avg. dy.Mo. agoYr. ago
CHEMICALS
Acetic acid45%27%18%9%0%0%4.05.55.2
Benzene14%43%29%14%0%0%6.17.57.0
Carbon black8%33%33%25%0%0%7.88.07.2
Caustic soda27%59%9%5%0%0%3.64.36.5
Chlorine20%30%30%20%0%0%6.76.46.7
Dioctyle pthalate13%38%38%13%0%0%6.39.27.3
Ethylene36%18%36%9%0%0%5.17.06.9
Ethylene glycol40%20%33%7%0%0%4.65.35.8
Glycerine13%25%38%13%13%0%9.16.66.2
Hydrogen peroxide55%18%18%9%0%0%3.84.75.7
LAS40%0%40%20%0%0%6.57.96.3
Methanol33%33%27%7%0%0%4.55.35.4
Phenol0%20%60%20%0%0%8.67.48.8
Soda ash20%50%20%10%0%0%5.04.95.6
Sodium bicarbonate22%44%22%11%0%0%5.24.97.6
Styrene14%14%57%14%0%0%7.46.76.9
Sulfuric acid39%44%11%6%0%0%3.54.55.4
Titanium dioxide0%11%44%11%33%0%14.211.311.5
Xylenes19%50%19%6%6%0%5.95.14.0
Vinyl chloride monomer0%40%40%20%0%0%7.77.17.8
POLYMERS
LDPE15%31%23%23%0%8%9.34.56.9
LLDPE13%38%25%19%0%6%8.57.110.1
HDPE injection molding14%36%21%29%0%0%7.58.213.4
HDPE extrusion/blow molding22%22%33%22%0%0%7.05.36.2
Polyvinyl chloride11%44%22%22%0%0%6.86.28.4
Polystyrene15%46%15%23%0%0%6.55.76.8
Polypropylene14%48%14%14%0%10%8.45.39.9
Polyols13%38%13%38%0%0%8.24.65.0
Isocyonates13%25%25%38%0%0%8.85.46.2
Polycarbonate18%29%24%24%0%6%8.77.611.4
Nylon18%29%18%24%12%0%9.27.38.8
Acetal27%36%18%18%0%0%5.75.88.1
Polyester, thermoplastic15%38%15%23%8%0%8.27.29.6
Elastomers17%50%17%17%0%0%5.85.89.3

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