amillenporter@reedbusiness.com

Debate du jour among the nation's business execs, investors, and economists focuses on just how fast corporate earnings—and more important, corporate profits—will rally.

The bulls say a big earnings surge will show itself as early as quarter two and, coupled with astonishing growth rates in business productivity, will very quickly restore U.S.A. Inc. to its '90s-style glory. The bears, meantime, while conceding a double-dip recession seems less and less likely, are not so convinced that consumers are going to pick up merrily where inventory replenishment leaves off. They're also wary of Corporate America's profound lack of pricing power and fear that too little has been done to quell labor and other corporate costs. The result, they say, may be a painful, profitless recovery where corporations continue to cut costs and remain frugal in their capital outlays.

Right now, the economic numbers appear to be supporting the bulls, while the anecdotal evidence—especially comments on business conditions from PURCHASING's own readers—suggests the bears are closer to the mark. If the bulls are right, then supply managers will be facing tight supply conditions (for electronics, steel, plastic resins, chemicals) in six to 12 months time. If the bears are right, then supply managers must be prepared to deliver more big cuts to both materials and operating budgets.

Either way, emerging technology for sourcing and purchasing is going to play a big role. If the bulls are right, then supply managers will need to be better at finding, developing and deploying sourcing leverage, making competitive markets, and discovering new and/or substitute sources quickly and effectively. If the bears are right, then supply managers will be expected to "keep up with the Jones'" in terms of cutting supply costs (using reverse e-auctions) and reducing labor cost burdens through automation of costly processes (using e-sourcing and e-procurement applications). A report PURCHASING is preparing for its September 19 issue will look at specific problems that e-sourcing and e-procurement software is attempting to solve and how well they are succeeding. Another report PURCHASING is preparing for its December 12 issue (E-Auction Playbook II) will focus on tactics for effective deployment of e-auction technology and will also consider the roles of e-auctions in undersupplied markets. For both reports, we need input (accolades, gripes, and advice) from purchasing pros who have real experience using the new tech tools. If you wish to participate in either of these reports, please drop me a line ASAP.