Spot shortages abound
Staff -- Purchasing, 9/5/2002
PURCHASING's Leadtime Index continued to edge upward in August, but this appears to be less a function of either strong demand growth or tight capacity and more a function of extreme pessimism among product manufacturers and distributors who are neither rehiring workers nor rebuilding finished product inventories. Anecdotal reports from buyers find many complaining about extremely tight supplier inventories, which are causing spot shortages for quite a number of items. Examples of commodities where leadtimes shot out by a third or more due to spot shortages in either July or August include dioctyl pthalate, copper tube, HDPE extrusion/blow molding grade, vinyl chloride monomer, phenol, polystyrene, polyols, pumps, styrene, CMOS logic devices, switcher power supplies, hydrogen peroxide, test instruments, free-cutting brass rod, and benzene. For the most part, however, these shortages are affecting very small numbers of buyers and they're not typically lasting longer than one or two months. At the category level, steel leadtimes have not yet peaked, but they look close. Ditto for plastic resins. Longer resin leadtimes are now pulling out on leadtimes for molded plastic parts. Oversupplied markets include nonferrous and fabricated metals, MRO, and packaging.
| 1. | Polyols | 57.6% |
| 2. | Isocyanates | 43.2% |
| 3. | Hydrogen peroxide | 38.1% |
| 4. | Acetic acid | 33.3% |
| 5. | Rubber hose | 32.7% |
| 6. | Aluminum wire | 28.5% |
| 7. | Seals & rings | 26.3% |
| 8. | Pressure pipe & tube | 23.8% |
| 9. | Flat belting | 23.8% |
| 10. | HR sheet & strip | 23.3% |
| 1. | Palladium | -40.9% |
| 2. | Platinum | -37.8% |
| 3. | Titanium bars | -22.7% |
| 4. | Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -22.4% |
| 5. | Titanium plate | -20.9% |
| 6. | Polycarbonate | -20.4% |
| 7. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -20.3% |
| 8. | Nonfriction bearings | -19.6% |
| 9. | Speed reducers | -18.0% |
| 10. | Titanium sheet | -17.9% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 16% | 54% | 19% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 16% | 47% | 28% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 18% | 57% | 18% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 15% | 63% | 11% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 16% | 60% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.4 |
| SRAM: 256 K | 11% | 59% | 22% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 16% | 48% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.9 | 6.9 |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 10% | 59% | 24% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 6.6 | 5.9 |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 17% | 65% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.7 |
| Logic: Bipolar | 14% | 46% | 25% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 5.9 | 5.5 | 5.6 |
| Logic: CMOS | 16% | 44% | 22% | 19% | 0% | 0% | 6.3 | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| MPU: 32-bit | 17% | 46% | 21% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| MPU: 16-bit | 15% | 54% | 19% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.6 | 6.0 |
| Zener diode | 19% | 54% | 19% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 5.1 | 4.4 | 5.4 |
| Thyristor | 17% | 49% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 6.1 | 5.8 |
| Small-signal transistors | 13% | 51% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.7 |
| MOSFET | 11% | 53% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 3% | 7.1 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| Analog digital converters | 14% | 47% | 23% | 14% | 0% | 2% | 6.5 | 8.1 | 6.6 |
| Digital/analog converters | 11% | 43% | 34% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 6.6 | 7.4 | 6.5 |
| Network resistors | 21% | 50% | 21% | 2% | 0% | 5% | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Thick film chip resistors | 24% | 52% | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 5.3 | 7.0 |
| Carbon film resistors | 31% | 51% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5.3 |
| Wirewound resistors | 20% | 53% | 20% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.5 | 6.7 |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 27% | 34% | 31% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 6.1 |
| Film capacitors | 27% | 41% | 22% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.4 |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 15% | 40% | 25% | 13% | 7% | 0% | 7.3 | 4.3 | 7.4 |
| D-SUB connectors | 13% | 58% | 16% | 11% | 0% | 3% | 5.9 | 4.1 | 5.2 |
| PLCC connectors | 13% | 59% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 5.9 | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| PCB connectors | 13% | 60% | 13% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 5.7 | 4.9 | 6.0 |
| DIP switches | 21% | 52% | 17% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| Pushbutton switches | 30% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 4.5 | 3.9 |
| Slide switches | 14% | 65% | 14% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
| General purpose relays | 24% | 53% | 11% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.4 |
| Solid state relays | 16% | 53% | 19% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 5.7 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| NiCd batteries | 25% | 50% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| NiMH batteries | 19% | 54% | 15% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Li-ion batteries | 13% | 54% | 8% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| Switcher power supplies | 11% | 39% | 22% | 15% | 7% | 7% | 9.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 11% | 65% | 16% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.0 |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 8% | 65% | 16% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 5.2 |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 3% | 53% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 7.4 | 5.8 | 5.8 |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 36% | 41% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 4.4 | 4.6 | 3.0 |
| CR sheet & strip | 34% | 41% | 16% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 30% | 42% | 20% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Electrogalvanized | 30% | 36% | 17% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 6.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 31% | 34% | 14% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.0 |
| Other coated sheet | 17% | 48% | 10% | 17% | 7% | 2% | 7.8 | 6.0 | 4.8 |
| HR bars | 48% | 35% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 3.7 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| CF bars | 51% | 29% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 3.5 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Stainless bars | 44% | 37% | 11% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 44% | 35% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3.8 | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Stainless plate | 25% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 |
| Light structurals | 52% | 33% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Heavy structurals | 35% | 43% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 43% | 39% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Line pipe & tube | 54% | 30% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 44% | 42% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 43% | 39% | 14% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.8 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 47% | 40% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 1.9 | 2.7 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 23% | 61% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 23% | 60% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 39% | 42% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Copper tube | 28% | 38% | 19% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 5.7 | 4.3 | 3.0 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 33% | 43% | 9% | 13% | 0% | 1% | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.4 |
| Aluminum plate | 34% | 49% | 8% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.9 |
| Aluminum tube | 34% | 46% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Titanium sheet | 13% | 44% | 19% | 13% | 13% | 0% | 8.2 | 8.4 | 7.3 |
| Titanium plate | 13% | 40% | 27% | 7% | 13% | 0% | 8.0 | 9.5 | 9.4 |
| Titanium bars | 12% | 53% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 7.2 | 3.8 | 8.3 |
| Gold | 25% | 44% | 19% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 2.0 | 4.9 |
| Silver | 24% | 41% | 29% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 2.3 | 4.5 |
| Platinum | 18% | 41% | 18% | 12% | 12% | 0% | 7.8 | 2.5 | 6.2 |
| Palladium | 12% | 53% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 0% | 7.2 | 2.5 | 6.2 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 14% | 36% | 18% | 29% | 0% | 4% | 8.4 | 6.2 | 8.4 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 29% | 29% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 8.0 | 3.3 | 7.2 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 13% | 38% | 25% | 6% | 13% | 6% | 9.7 | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 6% | 68% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Forgings | 2% | 38% | 40% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 7.9 | 8.6 | 7.1 |
| Magnet wire | 33% | 47% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Gray iron castings | 7% | 39% | 35% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 7.4 | 6.2 | 6.1 |
| Ductile iron castings | 7% | 39% | 34% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 7.3 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Investment castings | 2% | 34% | 41% | 20% | 2% | 0% | 8.2 | 10.0 | 7.5 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 4% | 39% | 43% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 7.2 | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| Steel wire | 26% | 48% | 24% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Copper wire | 25% | 56% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 |
| Aluminum wire | 24% | 55% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 9% | 65% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 5.2 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Blow molded plastics | 8% | 66% | 16% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.3 |
| Extruded plastics | 10% | 69% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 16% | 53% | 26% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 5.2 | 6.0 | 5.8 |
| Seals & rings | 20% | 56% | 22% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Flat belting | 24% | 57% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| Rubber hose | 37% | 47% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 44% | 39% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Motor controls | 34% | 41% | 12% | 12% | 0% | 1% | 4.8 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Gears | 28% | 46% | 22% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| Lighting fixtures | 73% | 24% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Temperature controls | 42% | 45% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.8 |
| Test instruments | 30% | 48% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 4.8 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 53% | 29% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Special fasteners | 32% | 50% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 4.3 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Speed reducers | 34% | 50% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 2% | 4.6 | 3.2 | 3.5 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 64% | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Grinding wheel | 68% | 21% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Lubricants | 75% | 23% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Adhesives | 66% | 26% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Lift truck batteries | 48% | 37% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 3.9 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 41% | 51% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Corrugated medium | 36% | 56% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Containerboard | 40% | 46% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3.5 | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Corrugated containers | 45% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Folding cartons | 40% | 53% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Multiwall bags | 30% | 44% | 22% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Bags & liners | 48% | 42% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| Steel drums | 41% | 51% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 |
| Plastic drums | 47% | 42% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| Fiber drums | 45% | 40% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3.5 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| IBCs | 38% | 54% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| FIBCs | 33% | 60% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 11% | 19% | 31% | 33% | 3% | 3% | 10.0 | 6.8 | 9.2 |
| Filters | 58% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.7 |
| Pumps | 46% | 35% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.4 |
| Seals & gaskets | 54% | 37% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 3.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Valves | 53% | 33% | 8% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Pressure instruments | 39% | 45% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 6% | 65% | 15% | 12% | 0% | 3% | 6.3 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Benzene | 5% | 58% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 5% | 7.2 | 11.6 | 8.6 |
| Carbon black | 4% | 52% | 20% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 8.7 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| Caustic soda | 18% | 57% | 14% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 5.6 | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| Chlorine | 15% | 37% | 30% | 11% | 7% | 0% | 7.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 9% | 64% | 18% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 19.3 | 10.4 |
| Ethylene | 13% | 42% | 29% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 6.9 | 8.2 | 9.5 |
| Ethylene glycol | 23% | 46% | 17% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 5.6 | 7.3 | 7.8 |
| Glycerine | 22% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 0% | 6.3 | 7.5 | 7.7 |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 19% | 50% | 14% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 5.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 |
| Isocyanates | 0% | 70% | 20% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.0 |
| LAS | 14% | 71% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 7.9 | 9.8 |
| Methanol | 17% | 47% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 6.0 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Phenol | 0% | 60% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 12.3 | 9.9 |
| Polyols | 8% | 42% | 42% | 0% | 8% | 0% | 7.0 | 13.1 | 5.4 |
| Soda ash | 13% | 65% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 20% | 50% | 15% | 5% | 10% | 0% | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.9 |
| Styrene | 9% | 43% | 9% | 22% | 13% | 4% | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.7 |
| Sulfuric acid | 20% | 55% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Titanium dioxide | 0% | 44% | 26% | 22% | 4% | 4% | 9.3 | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| Xylenes | 19% | 67% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 6.8 | 7.6 |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 0% | 70% | 10% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 6.4 | 17.0 | 12.8 |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 6% | 38% | 44% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 12.5 | 8.3 |
| LLDPE | 7% | 47% | 33% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 7.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 |
| HDPE injection molding | 4% | 36% | 36% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.2 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 13% | 38% | 25% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 9.1 | 16.0 | 8.0 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 8% | 33% | 42% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 7.1 | 14.7 | 7.6 |
| Polystyrene | 13% | 22% | 39% | 9% | 13% | 4% | 10.2 | 13.6 | 7.4 |
| Polypropylene | 5% | 21% | 29% | 26% | 8% | 11% | 12.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 |
| Polycarbonate | 11% | 42% | 16% | 5% | 26% | 0% | 10.3 | 12.1 | 10.0 |
| Nylon | 5% | 45% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 0% | 7.6 | 4.6 | 7.3 |
| Acetal | 8% | 33% | 33% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.6 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 0% | 50% | 23% | 23% | 0% | 5% | 8.7 | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Elastomers | 0% | 39% | 44% | 11% | 6% | 0% | 8.1 | 10.4 | 6.7 |
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