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Market prices still inflated

Staff -- Purchasing, 9/5/2002

Manufacturing activity has slowed sharply in the past two months, according to reports from the Federal Reserve, but the costs of raw materials have risen, according to surveys by PURCHASING. Various bellwether surveys show that growth in manufacturing activity decelerated in August—as more firms reported slower business than reported stronger business. Upshot: "Corporate managers are cleaning up their balance sheets, cutting costs and postponing their expansion plans," says economist John Youngdahl at Goldman Sachs in New York.

The polls find purchasing managers somewhat surprised with the overall upward midsummer trend in commodity pricing. Industries that report paying higher prices this summer include makers of rubber and plastic products, fabricated metal goods, wood and metal furniture, sporting goods, industrial and commercial equipment, transportation and offroad equipment and machinery. PURCHASING's Industrial Supplies Price Index ( ISPI , 1992=100) registered at 113.9 in August, close to July's revised 114.2. The index averaged 111.5 in the second quarter and 105.3 in the first quarter.

 

Hot Spots

U.S. crude oil prices, expected to average $24/barrel this year, will slide to $21/bbl in 2003 and $19 in 2004, according to a new and somewhat bearish forecast by Paul Y. Cheng at Lehman Brothers in New York. Reason: "Continued weak conditions in the U.S. refining market," he says. He also notes that "the global crude oil market" continues to engage in a tug of war between supply uncertainties caused by modest growth in production at a time of weak underlying demand." He also remains cautious on the medium-term outlook for global crude prices.

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