Buyers believe market prices for carbon plate in coils have peaked this summer at $320/ton and will be heading back toward $280. Reason: Midyear statistics show market supply has risen 7%, but end-use is down 5%. "Business conditions aren't good and sales still are down," says the plate-buying purchasing manager of a Tennessee manufacturer of high quality cutting tools.

So, most of the increase in mill sales this year is coming from metal service centers. "At the mill level, the plate market is actually quite strong," asserts John Tulloch, senior vice president of Ipsco Inc., Lisle, Ill. However, mill sales could be deceiving, says Henry Oliner, president of General Steel Inc., Macon, Ga., who adds his plate business is flat.

The traditional drivers of plate demand seem to be off, agrees market analyst Brad Osborne at Hatch Beddows, Pittsburgh. "Industrial equipment sales are based on the manufacturing sector, which has not been doing well," he says.