Leads lurch in September
Staff -- Purchasing, 10/10/2002
PURCHASING's Leadtime Index (1992=100), which tracks national average delivery speeds for a market basket of more than 150 industrial commodities, gained nearly seven and a half points in September bringing its annual rate of change to just shy of zero. Translation: As slow as it may be, the manufacturing recovery continues at a pace that will soon force producers and distributors to crank up their volumes in terms of output, staffing and inventory replenishment.
Examples where commodity leadtimes have stretched more than 20% over the past 12 months (and not listed below) include: hot- and cold-rolled steel sheet, hot-dipped galvanized steel sheet, pressure and mechanical pipe and tube, pressure instruments, aluminum sheet and strip, polyvinyl chloride, and sulfuric acid. Key commodities that have recently shifted from oversupply into balance or even slight undersupply (that is, leadtimes are just starting to stretch on an annual basis) include: corrugated containers, ductile iron castings, gray iron castings, lift truck batteries, stampings, blow molded plastics, and injection molded plastics.
| 1. Polyols | 48.6% |
| 2. Isocyanates | 46.3% |
| 3. Hydrogen peroxide | 44.0% |
| 4. Acetic acid | 37.9% |
| 5. Aluminum wire | 35.5% |
| 6. Rubber hose | 35.3% |
| 7. Copper tube | 29.1% |
| 8. Flat belting | 28.1% |
| 9. HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 26.9% |
| 10. Seals & rings | 26.8% |
| 1. Platinum | -30.0% |
| 2. Palladium | -28.5% |
| 3. Nonfriction bearings | -25.8% |
| 4. Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -24.5% |
| 5. Titanium plate | -20.0% |
| 6. Titanium bars | -19.4% |
| 7. Cobalt-based superalloys | -18.5% |
| 8. Gears | -14.6% |
| 9. Polycarbonate | -14.2% |
| 10. Speed reducers | -14.2% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 15% | 35% | 35% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.6 |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 16% | 47% | 32% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 16% | 53% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 17% | 50% | 17% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 5.8 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 16% | 53% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.3 |
| SRAM: 256 K | 17% | 50% | 22% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 14% | 41% | 32% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 16% | 37% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.9 | 5.1 | 4.3 |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 17% | 44% | 33% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 4.1 | 4.0 |
| Logic: Bipolar | 19% | 33% | 38% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5.8 | 5.9 | 4.8 |
| Logic: CMOS | 24% | 36% | 32% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| MPU: 32-bit | 15% | 25% | 45% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 5.9 | 5.3 |
| MPU: 16-bit | 15% | 25% | 45% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 6.9 | 5.3 | 5.1 |
| Zener diode | 17% | 49% | 26% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 6.0 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Thyristor | 16% | 32% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 6.7 | 4.7 | 3.6 |
| Small-signal transistors | 20% | 47% | 30% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.8 | 2.7 |
| MOSFET | 17% | 48% | 26% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 6.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 |
| Analog digital converters | 11% | 33% | 44% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.3 |
| Digital/analog converters | 12% | 40% | 32% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.0 |
| Network resistors | 18% | 39% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 0% | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.7 |
| Thick film chip resistors | 21% | 50% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 5.2 | 4.0 | 3.2 |
| Carbon film resistors | 23% | 46% | 26% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 4.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| Wirewound resistors | 10% | 59% | 21% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 5.7 | 4.6 | 3.1 |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 21% | 34% | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 |
| Film capacitors | 10% | 35% | 42% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 7.0 | 5.1 | 4.1 |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 0% | 40% | 37% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 8.2 | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| D-SUB connectors | 18% | 45% | 23% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.0 |
| PLCC connectors | 11% | 47% | 26% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.8 |
| PCB connectors | 8% | 48% | 32% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 |
| DIP switches | 13% | 48% | 30% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.3 |
| Pushbutton switches | 22% | 41% | 24% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 5.8 | 4.6 | 3.8 |
| Slide switches | 9% | 43% | 30% | 9% | 9% | 0% | 7.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 |
| General purpose relays | 20% | 37% | 30% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 |
| Solid state relays | 12% | 31% | 38% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 |
| NiCd batteries | 21% | 47% | 16% | 11% | 5% | 0% | 6.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 |
| NiMH batteries | 24% | 47% | 18% | 6% | 6% | 0% | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.8 |
| Li-ion batteries | 14% | 36% | 36% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| Switcher power supplies | 13% | 47% | 23% | 10% | 7% | 0% | 6.8 | 9.5 | 3.9 |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 7% | 51% | 34% | 2% | 5% | 0% | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 4% | 47% | 29% | 18% | 2% | 0% | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.6 |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 3% | 40% | 35% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 8.2 | 7.4 | 4.1 |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 33% | 42% | 17% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| CR sheet & strip | 31% | 43% | 14% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 29% | 49% | 16% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.7 | 3.3 |
| Electrogalvanized | 22% | 39% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 23% | 32% | 21% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 4.5 |
| Other coated sheet | 24% | 34% | 13% | 26% | 3% | 0% | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.8 |
| HR bars | 62% | 22% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| CF bars | 60% | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 |
| Stainless bars | 56% | 36% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 54% | 31% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
| Stainless plate | 33% | 48% | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.2 |
| Light structurals | 48% | 40% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.6 | 2.4 |
| Heavy structurals | 53% | 35% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 37% | 21% | 42% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 3.0 | 4.3 |
| Line pipe & tube | 44% | 38% | 13% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.4 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 34% | 31% | 31% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 4.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 37% | 37% | 16% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2.8 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 46% | 31% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 4.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 18% | 64% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 2% | 4.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 16% | 58% | 19% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5.3 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 42% | 38% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.6 |
| Copper tube | 13% | 57% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 5.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 31% | 44% | 16% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| Aluminum plate | 35% | 47% | 12% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.5 |
| Aluminum tube | 23% | 50% | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Titanium sheet | 7% | 43% | 21% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 9.8 | 8.2 | 11.6 |
| Titanium plate | 8% | 46% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 8% | 8.0 | 8.0 | 11.6 |
| Titanium bars | 25% | 44% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 7.4 | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| Gold | 29% | 29% | 21% | 0% | 14% | 7% | 9.0 | 5.1 | 5.6 |
| Silver | 33% | 40% | 13% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 6.7 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| Platinum | 25% | 42% | 17% | 8% | 0% | 8% | 7.1 | 7.8 | 5.6 |
| Palladium | 22% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 22% | 10.3 | 7.2 | 5.6 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 18% | 27% | 36% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 8.1 | 8.4 | 6.5 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 15% | 54% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 6.5 | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 14% | 21% | 36% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 10.2 | 9.7 | 11.9 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 6% | 59% | 31% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 5.5 | 5.0 | 4.8 |
| Forgings | 2% | 28% | 37% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 10.6 | 7.9 | 7.3 |
| Magnet wire | 17% | 58% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 5.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 |
| Gray iron castings | 9% | 35% | 43% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| Ductile iron castings | 3% | 36% | 48% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 7.6 | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Investment castings | 4% | 24% | 36% | 28% | 0% | 8% | 10.9 | 8.2 | 8.3 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 4% | 33% | 42% | 15% | 4% | 4% | 9.0 | 7.2 | 6.9 |
| Steel wire | 23% | 48% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Copper wire | 31% | 52% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 4.3 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Aluminum wire | 30% | 50% | 15% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 4.9 | 4.0 | 3.8 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 9% | 63% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Blow molded plastics | 17% | 67% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Extruded plastics | 11% | 73% | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 6% | 81% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 |
| Seals & rings | 31% | 55% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| Flat belting | 46% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Rubber hose | 45% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 44% | 44% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 3.6 | 3.2 |
| Motor controls | 25% | 55% | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Gears | 37% | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
| Lighting fixtures | 54% | 38% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| Temperature controls | 35% | 48% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
| Test instruments | 20% | 42% | 31% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.2 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 51% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Special fasteners | 27% | 45% | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 |
| Speed reducers | 14% | 66% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 55% | 36% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Grinding wheel | 59% | 29% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Lubricants | 61% | 36% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Adhesives | 63% | 35% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Lift truck batteries | 34% | 57% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.2 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 37% | 56% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Corrugated medium | 28% | 67% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Containerboard | 29% | 63% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.6 |
| Corrugated containers | 38% | 59% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
| Folding cartons | 30% | 63% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Multiwall bags | 28% | 52% | 21% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 4.5 | 3.1 |
| Bags & liners | 40% | 51% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Steel drums | 30% | 57% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Plastic drums | 36% | 44% | 20% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Fiber drums | 48% | 38% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| IBCs | 23% | 62% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 5.6 | 2.7 | 3.0 |
| FIBCs | 14% | 71% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 13% | 39% | 22% | 17% | 4% | 4% | 8.5 | 10.0 | 8.3 |
| Filters | 57% | 30% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| Pumps | 30% | 45% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| Seals & gaskets | 42% | 54% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Valves | 28% | 48% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| Pressure instruments | 5% | 63% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 3.9 | 3.7 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 19% | 44% | 22% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 6.7 | 6.3 | 6.3 |
| Benzene | 0% | 29% | 29% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 13.4 | 7.2 | 7.4 |
| Carbon black | 7% | 33% | 22% | 19% | 15% | 4% | 10.9 | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| Caustic soda | 16% | 44% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 7.4 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Chlorine | 12% | 40% | 16% | 20% | 4% | 8% | 9.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 11% | 33% | 0% | 22% | 11% | 22% | 15.3 | 5.1 | 8.7 |
| Ethylene | 13% | 20% | 27% | 20% | 7% | 13% | 12.4 | 6.9 | 7.3 |
| Ethylene glycol | 17% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 4% | 8% | 9.0 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| Glycerine | 18% | 24% | 24% | 18% | 6% | 12% | 11.1 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 23% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 0% | 5% | 6.9 | 5.8 | 4.0 |
| Isocyanates | 20% | 0% | 40% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 11.5 | 6.6 | 8.3 |
| LAS | 17% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 17% | 17% | 16.7 | 3.7 | 7.0 |
| Methanol | 13% | 35% | 30% | 13% | 4% | 4% | 8.4 | 6.0 | 5.6 |
| Phenol | 0% | 44% | 22% | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11.8 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| Polyols | 14% | 43% | 14% | 29% | 0% | 0% | 7.1 | 7.0 | 12.4 |
| Soda ash | 22% | 30% | 26% | 13% | 0% | 9% | 8.3 | 4.6 | 6.0 |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 24% | 29% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 8.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 |
| Styrene | 13% | 33% | 13% | 27% | 7% | 7% | 10.5 | 10.5 | 8.1 |
| Sulfuric acid | 18% | 44% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 7.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 |
| Titanium dioxide | 8% | 16% | 24% | 24% | 16% | 12% | 14.5 | 9.3 | 12.2 |
| Xylenes | 24% | 38% | 14% | 10% | 10% | 5% | 8.2 | 3.9 | 4.6 |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 8% | 17% | 17% | 33% | 8% | 17% | 15.1 | 6.4 | 10.2 |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 7% | 36% | 29% | 21% | 7% | 0% | 8.7 | 6.8 | 9.6 |
| LLDPE | 10% | 50% | 10% | 20% | 0% | 10% | 9.2 | 7.1 | 10.1 |
| HDPE injection molding | 18% | 27% | 27% | 9% | 18% | 0% | 9.3 | 8.7 | 12.0 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 20% | 40% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 7.2 | 9.1 | 8.2 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 10% | 20% | 25% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 13.2 | 7.1 | 11.5 |
| Polystyrene | 27% | 0% | 36% | 0% | 27% | 9% | 13.2 | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| Polypropylene | 12% | 29% | 29% | 12% | 15% | 3% | 10.0 | 12.9 | 10.4 |
| Polycarbonate | 18% | 24% | 18% | 18% | 24% | 0% | 11.1 | 10.3 | 15.6 |
| Nylon | 19% | 42% | 12% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 8.6 | 7.6 | 9.4 |
| Acetal | 18% | 27% | 36% | 18% | 0% | 0% | 6.8 | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 11% | 44% | 33% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 8.7 | 8.9 |
| Elastomers | 0% | 53% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 0% | 6.6 | 8.1 | 7.8 |
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