Crude oil prices are now in the $28-30/barrel range because President Bush has threatened to "go alone" to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and because OPEC has decided against raising crude supplies for winter. Also, Saudi Arabia now says that, in the event of regional war, OPEC should pump more only to fill a real supply shortage, not to deflate market speculation. U.S. oil futures in New York entered autumn at $29-30/bbl—very close to recent 19-month highs.

Early forecasts see no pricing surge off 30-year lows for zinc. Purchasing of the coating and alloying nonferrous metal has been weak because downstream demand for galvanized sheet steel and brass mill products remains tepid. At 38¢/lb, this year's U.S. market price average for zinc compares to a 54¢ average for the previous decade. The DRI-WEFA outlook for 2003 is 39¢/lb.

Lodging has been provided at deep discounts to maintain occupancy rates for some time and J.P. Morgan analyst Harry Curtis says hotel/motel pricing "will continue to be pressured by weak occupancy rates"—especially among business travelers. He says pricing power will not return to lodging suppliers until late-2003 at the earliest. Jake Fuller at the Thomas Weisel Partners merchant bank also has concerns over near-term sustainability of any attempted industry pricing recovery.

An improving economy this winter could cause higher demand and tighter supplies of natural gas that would create upward pressure on prices, suggests the Natural Gas Supply Association. In agreement, the Energy Department projects average wellhead prices of $3.20 per thousand cubic feet, up about 33% from last winter.

Selling prices for fabricated steel pipe and tube products used by the energy industry haven't kept up with cost increases for flat-rolled steel raw materials, admit producers Maverick Tube and NS Group. Reason: Lagging sales of seamless and welded oil country tubular goods and line pipe.

With demand still weak, copper inventories are very high. Yet, only 5% of global output is losing money at existing market values, even with cathode prices down 15% this year. "Therefore, we expect copper prices to remain firm near current levels" in 2003, says Lehman Bros. analyst Peter Ward. That fits with PURCHASING's latest forecast of domestic cathode averaging at 75¢/lb again in 2003.