PURCHASING's Leadtime Index rose 7.4 points in September, bringing its cyclical gain thus far to 33 points or 41% from a low point in April 2002. The steel trade brouhaha is behind a big chunk of this gain, but there can be no denying that industrial supply streams have become so dry that any economic growth, however slow, must translate directly into growth in industrial output. When that happens, manufacturers will start to rehire workers, fire up sizeable chunks of idle capacity, and feel more comfortable about funding capital and inventory, all of which should cause the pace of leadtime stretching to slow appreciably. Leadtime details on page 47 of this issue.

Overall, PURCHASING's Business Activity Index for September shows a manufacturing recovery that is limping but still upright. However, not all regions are created equal. While the Midwest, South and Northeast regions continue to gain strength, the Middle Atlantic region has fallen into a holding pattern and the West region has slipped back into negative territory as 41% of buyers report declining new orders for the month of September. Anecdotal reports from buyers, however, show enough diversity of experience to suggest that the recovery is still eluding some industry segments entirely. Story on page 25 of this issue.

The Federal Reserve should do nothing more to ease its monetary stance, according to 73% of economic forecasters surveyed each month by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. An apparent peak in the nation's civilian unemployment rate, which dropped unexpectedly from 5.9% in July to 5.7% in August, supports that view.

While it's not sufficiently broad based to warrant the big "I" word, PURCHASING's monthly Business Survey is recording a persistent rise in pricing pressures for industrial commodities. Thirty to forty percent of buyers (depending on region, industry) say they paid price increases in the past 30 days. Word on the street suggests that demand levels are so low that, in many cases, buyers are having trouble getting to the minimum order quantities that will qualify them for discounts. Other reports suggest that sellers—in search of yield improvements—are quietly raising discount order quantities, enforcing list prices or order minimums, or charging for the types of extras they might give away under better business conditions.