Longer leads bode better days
Staff -- Purchasing, 11/7/2002
While the manufacturing economy appears to have veered back in the direction of downturn in the Sept-Oct period, there's good reason to believe the slowdown won't be sustained. For one, PURCHASING's Leadtime Index (1992=100), which tracks national average delivery speeds for a market basket of more than 150 common industrial supply items, continues to trek upward and the trend is gaining rather than losing strength. Between September and October alone, the Leadtime Index rose three points and its 12-month rate of change rose from -0.2% to +4.1%. That means growth in demand for industrial materials has now started, on average, to exceed growth in supply, which, in turn, suggests that producers of industrial supplies—despite all their caution—will have to continue boosting output. That will brighten the employment situation and, with luck, keep consumers going to the nation's malls and shopping centers. It's important to note, however, that the developing supply crunch is still more a function of short labor versus short physical capacity at the nation's factories. As such, the long-awaited rebound in capital spending is probably still a few quarters off.
| 1. | Isocyanates | 54.8% |
| 2. | Polyols | 52.2% |
| 3. | Hydrogen peroxide | 45.4% |
| 4. | Aluminum wire | 43.7% |
| 5. | Flat belting | 41.4% |
| 6. | HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 39.0% |
| 7. | Rubber hose | 36.7% |
| 8. | Acetic acid | 35.8% |
| 9. | Polyvinyl chloride | 35.6% |
| 10. | Hot-dipped galvanized | 33.6% |
| 1. | Nonfriction bearings | -22.6% |
| 2. | Electric motors: 1-30 HP | -21.7% |
| 3. | Platinum | -21.5% |
| 4. | Cobalt-based superalloys | -19.8% |
| 5. | Titanium bars | -19.7% |
| 6. | Palladium | -18.6% |
| 7. | Titanium plate | -16.1% |
| 8. | Titanium-based superalloys | -14.8% |
| 9. | Gears | -14.3% |
| 10. | Titanium sheet | -11.9% |
| <1 wk. | 2-5 wks. | 6-10 wks. | 11-20 wks. | 21-30 wks. | 30+ wks. | Avg. wk. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| ELECTRONICS | |||||||||
| DRAM: 128 Mb | 25% | 43% | 32% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.5 |
| DRAM: 64 Mb | 14% | 45% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.9 | 5.1 | 4.4 |
| DRAM: 16 Mb | 12% | 53% | 35% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| SRAM: 4 Mb | 13% | 50% | 31% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 |
| SRAM: 1 Mb | 11% | 42% | 37% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6.1 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| SRAM: 256 K | 13% | 47% | 33% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Flash: 32 Mb | 23% | 32% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 5% | 6.8 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Flash: 16 Mb | 18% | 29% | 41% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 6.2 | 5.9 | 4.2 |
| Flash: 8 Mb | 11% | 44% | 33% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 6.0 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| Logic: Bipolar | 5% | 63% | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Logic: CMOS | 11% | 56% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.2 | 3.8 |
| MPU: 32-bit | 12% | 35% | 29% | 18% | 6% | 0% | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| MPU: 16-bit | 21% | 36% | 29% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.8 |
| Zener diode | 23% | 46% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
| Thyristor | 14% | 45% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 |
| Small-signal transistors | 12% | 55% | 27% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.1 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| MOSFET | 18% | 55% | 27% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 |
| Analog digital converters | 13% | 37% | 33% | 13% | 0% | 3% | 7.3 | 6.9 | 3.3 |
| Digital/analog converters | 15% | 31% | 31% | 19% | 0% | 4% | 7.9 | 6.9 | 2.8 |
| Network resistors | 25% | 36% | 28% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.6 |
| Thick film chip resistors | 29% | 44% | 21% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
| Carbon film resistors | 19% | 51% | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Wirewound resistors | 16% | 52% | 26% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| Ceramic chip capacitors | 23% | 45% | 25% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 |
| Film capacitors | 30% | 42% | 24% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 4.3 | 7.0 | 3.1 |
| Tantalum chip capacitors | 20% | 45% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 8.2 | 3.3 |
| D-SUB connectors | 27% | 42% | 21% | 6% | 3% | 0% | 5.0 | 6.1 | 2.4 |
| PLCC connectors | 27% | 46% | 12% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 5.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 |
| PCB connectors | 18% | 45% | 29% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 |
| DIP switches | 24% | 41% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.6 | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| Pushbutton switches | 24% | 40% | 24% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 5.4 | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| Slide switches | 15% | 48% | 26% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 5.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 |
| General purpose relays | 24% | 40% | 22% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 5.6 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| Solid state relays | 15% | 46% | 23% | 12% | 4% | 0% | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.3 |
| NiCd batteries | 17% | 57% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 5.7 | 6.0 | 1.9 |
| NiMH batteries | 17% | 56% | 22% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 |
| Li-ion batteries | 13% | 63% | 25% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4.3 | 8.5 | 2.5 |
| Switcher power supplies | 13% | 27% | 40% | 10% | 3% | 7% | 8.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 |
| Single sided printed circuit boards | 4% | 61% | 27% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.0 |
| Double sided printed circuit boards | 4% | 57% | 26% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
| Multi-layer printed circuit boards | 8% | 54% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 6.5 | 8.2 | 4.6 |
| STEEL | |||||||||
| HR sheet & strip | 41% | 36% | 17% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| CR sheet & strip | 36% | 40% | 15% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 4.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 |
| Stainless sheet & strip | 33% | 46% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 3% | 4.5 | 3.9 | 3.8 |
| Electrogalvanized | 21% | 38% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 7.2 | 6.1 | 5.0 |
| Hot-dipped galvanized | 28% | 33% | 17% | 19% | 2% | 2% | 6.6 | 6.6 | 4.4 |
| Other coated sheet | 24% | 38% | 26% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 5.4 | 7.1 | 5.4 |
| HR bars | 51% | 31% | 11% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| CF bars | 53% | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 3.0 | 2.3 | 3.7 |
| Stainless bars | 48% | 38% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 3.6 | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Carbon & alloy plate | 41% | 39% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 4.3 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Stainless plate | 35% | 48% | 12% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.1 |
| Light structurals | 46% | 35% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| Heavy structurals | 34% | 40% | 20% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 4.5 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Oil country tubular goods | 36% | 41% | 14% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 5.0 | 4.3 | 3.8 |
| Line pipe & tube | 44% | 32% | 12% | 7% | 0% | 5% | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.9 |
| Pressure pipe & tube | 23% | 49% | 21% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 5.2 | 4.6 | 3.5 |
| Mechanical pipe & tube | 40% | 42% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.5 | 4.8 | 3.0 |
| Structural pipe & tube | 39% | 44% | 9% | 6% | 0% | 2% | 4.0 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| NONFERROUS METALS | |||||||||
| Copper sheet & strip | 22% | 49% | 22% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4.0 |
| Brass sheet & strip | 34% | 40% | 20% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Free-cutting brass rod | 44% | 42% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 |
| Copper tube | 29% | 53% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 5.2 | 5.6 | 2.4 |
| Aluminum sheet & strip | 32% | 40% | 10% | 17% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 |
| Aluminum plate | 35% | 53% | 5% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Aluminum tube | 25% | 60% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| Titanium sheet | 23% | 35% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 4% | 6.3 | 9.8 | 6.3 |
| Titanium plate | 35% | 15% | 40% | 5% | 0% | 5% | 6.4 | 8.0 | 7.1 |
| Titanium bars | 29% | 29% | 25% | 14% | 0% | 4% | 6.6 | 7.4 | 5.4 |
| Gold | 35% | 35% | 24% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 5.4 | 9.0 | 6.1 |
| Silver | 26% | 42% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5.6 | 6.7 | 2.5 |
| Platinum | 24% | 29% | 24% | 18% | 0% | 6% | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 |
| Palladium | 25% | 38% | 19% | 13% | 0% | 6% | 7.1 | 10.3 | 3.0 |
| Nickel-based superalloys | 19% | 41% | 24% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 6.8 | 8.1 | 6.6 |
| Cobalt-based superalloys | 26% | 37% | 21% | 11% | 0% | 5% | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.4 |
| Titanium-based superalloys | 33% | 29% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 6.7 | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| FABRICATED METALS | |||||||||
| Stampings | 9% | 64% | 23% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 5.0 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| Forgings | 6% | 23% | 50% | 19% | 0% | 2% | 8.3 | 10.6 | 7.1 |
| Magnet wire | 38% | 41% | 16% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 4.8 | 5.6 | 2.6 |
| Gray iron castings | 10% | 46% | 36% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 6.2 | 7.2 | 5.7 |
| Ductile iron castings | 10% | 31% | 50% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 7.1 | 7.6 | 6.1 |
| Investment castings | 6% | 22% | 47% | 19% | 0% | 6% | 9.6 | 10.9 | 7.3 |
| Die castings (all kinds) | 5% | 38% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 2% | 7.2 | 9.0 | 6.3 |
| Steel wire | 17% | 52% | 24% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 |
| Copper wire | 25% | 60% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Aluminum wire | 27% | 58% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.8 |
| PLASTIC & RUBBER | |||||||||
| Injection molded plastics | 12% | 52% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 5.6 | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| Blow molded plastics | 15% | 42% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 3% | 6.5 | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Extruded plastics | 8% | 61% | 24% | 4% | 0% | 2% | 5.5 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
| Compression mold. plastics | 6% | 45% | 35% | 10% | 0% | 3% | 7.1 | 3.9 | 4.8 |
| Seals & rings | 35% | 48% | 13% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.0 |
| Flat belting | 27% | 50% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.2 |
| Rubber hose | 43% | 49% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| MRO | |||||||||
| Electric motors: 1-30 HP | 45% | 38% | 12% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| Motor controls | 32% | 46% | 16% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Gears | 33% | 43% | 16% | 7% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 3.4 | 3.9 |
| Lighting fixtures | 58% | 37% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Temperature controls | 35% | 54% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Test instruments | 31% | 51% | 17% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.1 |
| Nonfriction bearings | 56% | 33% | 9% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 2.6 | 2.3 | 4.1 |
| Special fasteners | 26% | 52% | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 4.3 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Speed reducers | 29% | 51% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3.8 | 4.3 | 3.6 |
| Cutting tool inserts | 57% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Grinding wheel | 61% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Lubricants | 75% | 25% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Adhesives | 58% | 40% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Lift truck batteries | 51% | 39% | 6% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| PACKAGING | |||||||||
| Linerboard | 38% | 52% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 |
| Corrugated medium | 40% | 55% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Containerboard | 33% | 54% | 7% | 3% | 3% | 0% | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Corrugated containers | 38% | 55% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Folding cartons | 34% | 55% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| Multiwall bags | 35% | 49% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.4 |
| Bags & liners | 39% | 52% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.1 |
| Steel drums | 45% | 39% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Plastic drums | 35% | 51% | 9% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| Fiber drums | 38% | 49% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| IBCs | 18% | 73% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 4.6 | 5.6 | 2.9 |
| FIBCs | 10% | 75% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| EQUIPMENT | |||||||||
| Lift trucks | 3% | 26% | 37% | 31% | 3% | 0% | 9.5 | 8.5 | 9.1 |
| Filters | 44% | 44% | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
| Pumps | 16% | 50% | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 5.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 |
| Seals & gaskets | 57% | 38% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Valves | 35% | 51% | 14% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Pressure instruments | 16% | 66% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4.1 | 5.6 | 2.8 |
| <1 dy. | 1-5 dy. | 6-10 dy. | 11-20 dy. | 21-30 dy. | 30+ dy. | Avg. dy. | Mo. ago | Yr. ago | |
| CHEMICALS | |||||||||
| Acetic acid | 12% | 47% | 26% | 6% | 6% | 3% | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 |
| Benzene | 0% | 33% | 28% | 11% | 17% | 11% | 13.3 | 13.4 | 5.6 |
| Carbon black | 5% | 27% | 18% | 23% | 14% | 14% | 14.2 | 10.9 | 5.4 |
| Caustic soda | 20% | 42% | 24% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 7.0 | 7.4 | 4.3 |
| Chlorine | 13% | 48% | 23% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 7.0 | 9.7 | 5.1 |
| Dioctyle pthalate | 13% | 13% | 25% | 25% | 13% | 13% | 13.9 | 15.3 | 3.9 |
| Ethylene | 12% | 31% | 31% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 10.0 | 12.4 | 3.9 |
| Ethylene glycol | 10% | 48% | 21% | 14% | 3% | 3% | 7.6 | 9.0 | 4.9 |
| Glycerine | 6% | 50% | 11% | 22% | 6% | 6% | 9.5 | 11.1 | 3.9 |
| Hydrogen peroxide | 27% | 47% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 6.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 |
| Isocyanates | 0% | 30% | 10% | 30% | 0% | 30% | 17.0 | 11.5 | 6.3 |
| LAS | 25% | 0% | 25% | 25% | 13% | 13% | 13.6 | 16.7 | 4.5 |
| Methanol | 13% | 57% | 13% | 10% | 3% | 3% | 6.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 |
| Phenol | 0% | 43% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 7% | 10.3 | 11.8 | 5.8 |
| Polyols | 0% | 30% | 20% | 20% | 0% | 30% | 16.3 | 7.1 | 6.7 |
| Soda ash | 16% | 45% | 19% | 13% | 3% | 3% | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.1 |
| Sodium bicarbonate | 17% | 50% | 11% | 11% | 6% | 6% | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.4 |
| Styrene | 14% | 21% | 29% | 21% | 7% | 7% | 10.8 | 10.5 | 4.9 |
| Sulfuric acid | 24% | 48% | 10% | 14% | 2% | 2% | 6.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 |
| Titanium dioxide | 8% | 12% | 28% | 24% | 16% | 12% | 14.7 | 14.5 | 5.1 |
| Xylenes | 29% | 33% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 5% | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 |
| Vinyl chloride monomer | 0% | 13% | 25% | 38% | 13% | 13% | 15.8 | 15.1 | 5.4 |
| RESINS | |||||||||
| LDPE | 0% | 33% | 21% | 21% | 8% | 17% | 14.0 | 8.7 | 4.3 |
| LLDPE | 5% | 19% | 19% | 33% | 10% | 14% | 14.8 | 9.2 | 4.9 |
| HDPE injection molding | 0% | 19% | 38% | 19% | 0% | 25% | 15.3 | 9.3 | 7.3 |
| HDPE extrusion/blow molding | 0% | 45% | 9% | 9% | 0% | 36% | 16.5 | 7.2 | 5.8 |
| Polyvinyl chloride | 7% | 14% | 29% | 14% | 7% | 29% | 16.9 | 13.2 | 6.1 |
| Polystyrene | 5% | 19% | 38% | 14% | 5% | 19% | 13.8 | 13.2 | 5.7 |
| Polypropylene | 7% | 26% | 26% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 12.6 | 10.0 | 6.8 |
| Polycarbonate | 0% | 24% | 29% | 24% | 5% | 19% | 14.7 | 11.1 | 6.5 |
| Nylon | 0% | 29% | 18% | 24% | 6% | 24% | 15.8 | 8.6 | 7.4 |
| Acetal | 0% | 21% | 43% | 14% | 0% | 21% | 13.9 | 6.8 | 6.8 |
| Polyester, thermoplastic | 6% | 28% | 22% | 17% | 6% | 22% | 14.6 | 6.0 | 6.3 |
| Elastomers | 0% | 29% | 36% | 14% | 0% | 21% | 13.6 | 6.6 | 6.3 |
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