Transaction prices for major commodity resins have increased by an average 18.5% this year, according to PURCHASING magazine's monthly Business Survey. The exclusive weighted index for resins—at 131.6 in October, compared with 111.1 in January—is the highest in 18 months, since 132.6 recorded in April 2001. For chemicals, the October index of 128.7 compares with 125.1 in September and is the highest in the past 16 months, since the 129.8 recorded in June of 2001. Buyers are grousing about price increases on chemicals and resins, but several industry executives say the increases in energy feedstocks—oil derivatives and natural gas—have soaked up most of any bottom line profit improvement that might have resulted from those increases. Producers are continuing to attempt price increases in the fourth quarter.

Looking at 2003, even producers admit the pricing picture is unclear. First off, energy prices could slide if there's no direct military action in Iraq. Another is a probable further decrease in the amount of petrochemical material sold offshore in 2003—because of the strong dollar. That would boost domestic supply and put downward pressure on pricing.