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Key Metrics and Supply Alert

Staff -- Purchasing, 11/7/2002

Look for new security-related logistics rules and regulations. Customs will require an electronic manifest at least a day before U.S.-bound ships leave foreign ports. Chemical shippers will be required by the U.S. Department of Transportation to assess risks of hijacking hazardous materials, such as chlorine.

Start building safety stocks. Inventories are skin tight, according to PURCHASING's monthly Business Survey. Any disruption in supply is causing major price and leadtime headaches. That's what happened this year in flat-rolled steel and isocyanates. Potential for war in Iraq will quickly tie up logistics pipelines as military shippers take priority. You can get real-time inventory strategy results form PURCHASING's pulsetaking if you take the survey. Sign up with an e-mail to jeno@reedbusiness.com.

Buyers want higher discounts on payment terms, a new PURCHASING survey shows. Reason: Improved corporate cash flow. A novel idea being floated in the chemical industry would boost early payment discounts to 2.2% through use of procurement cards.

Polyolefin overcapacity? You haven't seen anything. Chinese authorities just approved construction of two polyolefin plants in the Fujan province. A Saudi, Chinese and ExxonMobil JV will build a new 800,000 metric ton/yr ethylene steam cracker, and polyethylene and polypropylene units, together with chemical derivatives manufacturing units and related distribution and marketing facilities.

Producers are calling cobalt market prices "terrible" and see no end for the specialty metal that has seen prices collapse 53% (year over year) due to sliding demand. Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Koort suggests no increase in pricing for 2003. Note: Late last decade, Resource Strategies and Roskill Information Services predicted that excess supply would lead to more than a 75% decrease in cathode prices early this millennium.

Are you being asked to assume responsibility for a growing number of nontraditional services buys? More buyers are taking on the challenge of consolidating their companies' services purchases, and at American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Bank of Boston, and others they are doing so with much success. PURCHASING magazine's Strategies for Nontraditional Buying book shows how these companies buy services, energy, PCs and software, and office equipment and supplies. Go to Purchasing.com's Bookstore and ORDER TODAY!

Trouble hits the Northeast
UpDownSameIndexTrend
Business Activity Indexes*
National33%30%37%51.4Down
Northeast19%37%44%40.7Down
Middle Atlantic36%26%38%54.5Up
Midwest33%27%40%52.7Down
South32%27%41%52.6Down
West36%38%26%48.8Up
Forward Demand Indexes* (90-days)
National34%31%35%52.0Down
Northeast23%33%44%45.3Down
Middle Atlantic41%28%31%56.4Down
Midwest35%31%34%52.0Down
South33%28%39%52.6Down
West35%31%34%51.7Down
LatestMo agoYr agoROC**Trend
Leadtime Index
('92=100)116.2113.481.94.1%Up
Industrial Supplies Price Index
('92=100)115.5115.1108.4-12.4%Up
*Percent of buyers responding to survey/diffusion indexes: above 50=rising, below 50=falling. **12-month rate of change.
SOURCE: PURCHASING

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