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Factors Affecting Product Cost

Staff -- Purchasing, 11/7/2002

Average retail gasoline prices have inched up about 5¢ in the past month to $1.45 a gallon, coming at a time of year when prices normally soften due to a seasonal downturn in road travel. American Automobile Association and analysts agree that motorists are gobbling up gasoline at a break-neck pace due to a continuing "drive not fly" trend since the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks.

Spot-market pricing for key wood pulp grades—Northern bleached softwood kraft (NBSK) and Southern bleached softwood kraft (SBSK)—declined by $10/metric ton in early October. But even that didn't spur much purchasing by papermakers, whose sales—and pricing—have been flat since Labor Day.

Spot power prices have declined sharply—by about 92%—in the Pacific Northwest from an average of $251/megawatt hour (MWh) in the first half of 2001. In the first three quarters of this year, spot power prices have averaged about $21/MWh. That price average is 26% below pre-1999 power crisis levels. Analysts say that cool summers, mild winters and reduced demand from heavy industry—caused by aluminum smelting cutbacks—could keep prices low for light industrial and commercial accounts through next spring.

Slumping sales in North America and Taiwan are continuing to depress prices for integrated circuits, according to producers already reporting third-quarter losses from reduced transaction prices. Lower salestags have been caused by reduced sales to the computer and networking end markets in Taiwan and weaker sales through the North American distribution channel.

Market prices for liquid crystal displays (LCDs) will continue rising in line with continued strong sales to makers of next-generation televisions, cellular telephones and audiovisual equipment, says Hiroshi Saji, senior managing director of Sharp Corp. Sales into new markets have kept LCD prices elevated despite worse-than-expected sales in traditional personal computer markets.

Accelerating South African platinum supply will depress the metal's price through next year. PURCHASING forecasts a $550/ounce sales average for next year while J.P. Morgan analyst Seth Tenant says he would not be surprised by a $500 average. Platinum sold at an average $572 in the U.S. in 2001 but has been slipping toward $525 this year.

Price expectations, 90-days
Commodity CategoryPeriodUpDownSameDiffusion Index
Energy Oct59%3%38%78.0
Transportation services Oct45%7%48%68.9
CorrugatedOct40%10%50%65.0
Paper Oct37%7%56%64.6
Organic chemicalsOct33%6%61%63.5
Plastic resinsOct37%12%51%62.6
Inorganic chemicals Oct28%7%65%60.8
SteelOct39%18%43%60.1
Molded plastics Oct28%10%62%59.2
Fabricated metals Oct33%16%51%58.1
Aluminum Oct30%14%56%57.8
Copper & brass Oct23%15%62%54.1
Tooling Oct22%14%64%54.0
Industrial machinery Oct17%17%66%50.0
Passive electronicsOct14%16%70%49.1
Semiconductor Oct17%19%64%49.0
Computer Oct10%35%55%37.1

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