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Factors Affecting Product Cost

Staff -- Purchasing, 11/21/2002

Fujitsu Ltd. has begun selling, for $65 apiece, a new high-density, multi-chip package (MCP) that stacks five high-powered semiconductors for cellular telephone applications. That market now requires the full range of different types of memory to serve a variety of new functions so memory packages must now be smaller, with higher densities and larger capacities, notes Keith Horn, vice president of marketing for Fujitsu Microelectronics America.

Ethanol pricing is bound to pick up now that demand finally is beginning to improve, says Larry Cunningham, senior vice president of agribusiness giant Archer Daniels Midland Co. The market price for ethanol has fallen by an average 20¢/gal this year because production grew although demand didn't increase for ADM, the No. 1 U.S. ethanol producer, and its competitors.

Silicon metal prices have been steady near 60¢ lately, a dime more than market prices before preliminary dumping duties were imposed on Russian silicon imports. A final ruling on the duties is expected in February 2003. Buyers believe that will keep prices elevated through the first quarter.

Research by UBS Warburg analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos suggests that Cisco is lowering prices for certain modules of its flagship Catalyst 6500 LAN Switch by 15-35%. "This is the first time Cisco has formally lowered prices on the Catalyst 6500 series in three years," Theodosopoulos says. "The Catalyst 6500 is Cisco's largest revenue producing product and it represents about 25% of Cisco's total product sales."

Oversupply and a sharp drop in demand has driven down prices of 15-, 17-, 18-, and 19-inch LCD monitors, with prices of larger units dropping very fast, says analyst Rhoda Alexander at ISuppli/Stanford Resources. She sees 17-inch LCDs selling for an average $560, compared to an average price of about $750 in the same quarter a year ago and $1,150 two years ago. She also forecasts 19-inch LCDs at about $900 soon, down from an average of $1,567 late last year and a $4,210 average price eight quarters ago.

Lehman Brothers analyst Peter Ruschmeier expects "a gradual but accelerating rise in prices of commodity paper grades"—but not until early-to-mid 2003. He suggests purchasing will begin to strengthen by the start of 2003 so buyers will be more amenable to the sales price increases constantly being proposed by makers of uncoated and coated free sheet, newsprint and containerboard products.

Electronics buyers' 30-day price expectations
UpDownSameIndex*
Commodities voted most likely to rise in price
DRAM: 128 Mb16%3%81%56.5
Wirewound resistors16%6%78%54.7
Analog digital converters11%3%86%53.6
Commodities voted most likely to fall in price
Multi-layer printed circuit boards2%22%76%40.2
Ceramic chip capacitors2%20%78%41.3
Li-ion batteries0%15%85%42.5
NiCd batteries0%13%87%43.5
MOSFET4%16%80%44.0
SRAM: 256 K0%11%89%44.7
MPU: 16-bit0%10%90%45.0
NiMH batteries0%10%90%45.0
Double sided printed circuit boards5%15%80%45.1
SRAM: 4 Mb5%14%81%45.2
Flash: 8 Mb5%14%81%45.2
Logic: CMOS0%9%91%45.5
Small-signal transistors6%15%79%45.5
* Above 50=rising, below 50=falling.
SOURCE: PURCHASING

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