Key Metrics and Supply Alert
Staff -- Purchasing, 12/12/2002
Certify suppliers as you increase sourcing in developing economies. A group called Social Accountability International developed standards for workplace conditions and established a third-party certification system. It's called Social Accountability 8000. Currently 162 facilities have been certified in 27 countries. See the list at http://www.cepaa.org/. The organization has recognized organizations complying with the system. They include Ford, GM, Dow, DuPont, Shell Oil and Texaco.
The memory market is bouncing back. DRAM revenue will end the year at $15 billion, up 35% over last year, according to the Semiconductor Industry Association. The DRAM market will grow another 35% in 2003 and 43% in 2004. The flash market will be flat this year, but grow 39% to $11 billion in 2003 and another 28% in 2004.
Expect temporary shortages of 256-megabit double data rate DRAMs. Computer OEMs are switching to the higher density parts because of the performance advantage and low cost. Leadtimes have stretched to nine weeks. However, shortages will be short-term as manufacturers are adding capacity.
Hynix Semiconductor is getting out of the LCD business. The company is selling its flat panel display business to BOE Technology Group of China for $380 million. The company will use proceeds from the sale to upgrade its memory chip operations. Hynix is a leading manufacturer of DRAMs and other memory ICs.
Intel has begun shipping its news Pentium 4 processor running at 3.06 gigahertz, the first commercially available processor to run at that speed. Intel says the new chip will help create a new class of high-performance desktop PCs that run multiple applications simultaneously. The processor is not cheap. Cost: $637 in 1,000 unit quantities.
The connector industry's book-to-bill ratio was below 1.00 for the fourth consecutive month. October's ratio was 0.99 meaning for every $1,000 in orders shops shipped, connector manufacturers received only $99 in new orders. The ratio reflects poor visibility about future orders and the desire of OEMs to maintain low inventories, according to researcher Bishop and Associates.
Costs will be the major preoccupation of MRO buyers over the next few years. Generally considered a low priority, maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) items make up only 5-10% of most purchasing budgets. PURCHASING Magazine's book, MRO Buying Strategies, explores many of these changes Go to Purchasing.com's Bookstore and ORDER TODAY!
| Up | Down | Same | Index | Trend | |
| Business Activity Indexes* | |||||
| National | 33% | 29% | 38% | 51.8 | up |
| Northeast | 32% | 33% | 35% | 49.0 | up |
| Middle Atlantic | 24% | 41% | 35% | 41.2 | down |
| Midwest | 29% | 27% | 44% | 51.1 | down |
| South | 44% | 22% | 34% | 60.7 | up |
| West | 34% | 31% | 35% | 51.8 | up |
| Forward Demand Indexes* (90-days) | |||||
| National | 37% | 31% | 32% | 52.8 | up |
| Northeast | 31% | 26% | 43% | 52.9 | up |
| Middle Atlantic | 35% | 38% | 27% | 48.5 | down |
| Midwest | 34% | 38% | 29% | 47.9 | down |
| South | 36% | 27% | 37% | 54.5 | up |
| West | 47% | 20% | 33% | 63.6 | up |
| Latest | Mo ago | Yr ago | ROC** | Trend | |
| Leadtime Index | |||||
| ('92=100) | 102.2 | 116.2 | 87.6 | 7.0% | down |
| Industrial Supplies Price Index | |||||
| ('92=100) | 118.9 | 117.2 | 107.3 | -9.4% | up |
| *Percent of buyers responding to survey/diffusion indexes: above 50=rising, below 50=falling. **12-month rate of change. SOURCE: PURCHASING | |||||
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