It's still unclear whether expected euphoria from an end to the war in Iraq will boost consumer confidence and, ultimately, business confidence. "The war has temporarily stopped the economic recovery," suggests the purchasing manager for a metal door and frame manufacturer. The sourcing manager for a chemical company in New Jersey says, "The entire chemical sector is in 'neutral' pending the direction or outcome of the war in Iraq."

Manufacturing has been delaying capital expansion plans in view of geopolitical uncertainty and the latest economic data keeps pointing to sluggish, or possibly negative, demand growth for the rest of 2003. The commodity manager for materials handling products firm in Michigan says, "business has leveled off, and we're still not seeing an upturn." Similar comments come from buyers at various other equipment and machinery firms throughout the country.

"Numerous customers are waiting for the final outcome of the war in Iraq," agrees the director of materials for a Midwest truck trailer manufacturer. "We are waiting for the war to be over, for the economy to stabilize, for consumer confidence to return, and for companies to release their capital budgets," says the global commodity manager for a California-based supplier of networking and network management equipment.

The senior buyer for a commercial position-tracking and test equipment maker says "business is down because of real word conditions, meaning the war." The purchasing manager of a thermoformed plastic packaging firm in Wisconsin agrees, "We are not seeing very much money being pumped into new business." Sales "definitely are tighter in our business," says a purchasing team leader at a New Jersey cosmetics and beauty products firm, "but we expect everything to pick up after the war."

Other factors affecting business include the second quarter slowdown in automaking. "The entire automotive parts and raw materials market is down due to the North American automakers cutting their production rate forecasts," says the commodity sourcing specialist for a Tier I electronic auto parts supplier. "We're seeing a significant amount of customer order 'push outs' and cancellations," reports the senior buyer for a maker of electroluminescent backlighting products.

A process improvement leader for a major forest products company acknowledges "business has not been good," but adds "we're looking for improvement after the war in Iraq comes to some kind of conclusion." Similar sentiment comes from the purchasing manager of a fiberglass-reinforced plastics molding plant in the Midwest, who says: "Overall business is down due to the economy and the war. Hopefully, things will pick up during the summer months."

"Business is terrible. No one wants to stock anything anymore—including our own company," says the purchasing supervisor for an Ohio-based maker of equipment for the energy, communications and cable television markets. "If and when this economy uplifts, all hell will break loose and it will become a huge sellers' market with suppliers by charging whatever they want."

The war also is causing normal business relationships to become disjointed. "Our automotive customers are asking us to build inventory due to the war in Iraq and the possibility of terror attacks in North America even though we are seeing a decline in orders. They want a plan in place to extend inventory by an additional week," says the director of supplier engineering for an audio electronics firm. "The customers don't want to go through another disaster with the flow of goods being imported from Asia as we had with the West Coast dock strike where they were shutting down car assembly lines within two days of the dock strike."

Some businesses actually are benefiting from the fighting in Iraq. The materials manager of an electromechanical components maker in Virginia says the "company has an abundance of orders in process through engineering and sales opportunities are certainly becoming more abundant since the war began."

The purchasing agent for an Illinois forge suggests "the entire forging industry is seeing a significant increase in orders due to the war, which is being reflected by growing leadtimes for deliveries of forged metal products." And the director of technical improvement at a tobacco products company in North Carolina says: "Our products are in demand for military personnel, so we are seeing high demand for shipment to the Middle East."

Some firms are seeing better business, even without a military boost. "Fortunately, my company has not been adversely affected by the downturned economy or war with Iraq," says the buyer at a Midwest communication network systems company. "Our first quarter earnings are up approximately 15% from this time last year," says the buyer at a precision instruments firm in Rhode Island, who adds: "Our forecast for customer orders for the second quarter is up considerably from last year's volume."