How Supply Managers See High-Tech Business
Staff -- Purchasing, 1/13/2005
- Good news for American manufacturers: Durable-goods orders reboundedin November. Orders for the big-ticket products expected to last at least three years rose by 1.6%, led by an 8.2% jump in transportation-sector orders. The overall outlook for capital spending remains upbeat, says Haseeb Ahmed, a senior economist at Economy.com. "Fundamentals for capital spending remain decidedly positive. The Economy.com forecast calls for a 7% annualized increase in equipment spending in the first half of 2005.
- America's yawning trade gap with the rest of the world wasn't quite as ugly as first estimated. Commerce Department says exports increased 6% in the third quarter and imports advanced by 4.6%. Commerce previously reported exports rose 6.3% and imports went up 6%. Second-quarter exports rose 7.3% and imports went up 12.6%. Still, the deficit expanded to $55.46 billion in October, and stands at $500.49 billion cumulatively for 2004—a wider gap than for all of 2003.
- The U.S. savings rate is the lowest since World War II. Of course, the rate has been eroding steadily since the late 1980s, as people have moved savings from money-market accounts into sexier investments. But, many of those are paper gains, which can make for flimsy nest eggs. That's why stodgy economists would like to see real savings rise again. "With baby boomers nearing retirement, the savings rate should be higher than this," Lehman Brothers senior economist Drew Matus tells clients.
- The surprisingly sharp 12% drop in new single-family home sales in November is reigniting debate about the U.S. housing boom. The naysayers who see it ending have been wrong so far, and one month does not a trend make, but the latest sour note has caused analysts to listen for more dissonance in the real-estate market. Is it possible, the bears ask, if a combination of hyperinflation in housing prices, which has pushed affordable homes further beyond the means of many average American households, coupled with steadily rising interest rates is coming to a head?
- It's been an up-and-down year for the U.S. job market, and November continued the pattern, with job growth slowing abruptly, just as befuddled economists expected it to stay strong. The percentage of businesses adding jobs, a leading indicator of job growth, fell to its lowest level since last December. Non-farm payrolls grew by just 112,000 jobs in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports, down from October's 303,000 gain.
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