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Buyers' report on early 2006 pricing

The latest commodities-pricing trends

Staff -- Purchasing, 3/16/2006

PERIODUPDOWNSAMEINDEX*
Copper & brassFEB75%2%23%86.9
AluminumFEB62%1%37%80.1
EnergyFEB72%12%16%79.8
TransportationFEB62%6%32%77.8
CorrugatedFEB46%3%51%71.9
Molded plasticsFEB43%3%54%70.0
PaperFEB42%2%56%69.8
Fabricated metalsFEB42%2%56%69.6
Inorganic chemicals FEB39%0%61%69.5
ToolingFEB43%5%52%69.0
Organic chemicals FEB38%2%60%68.1
Plastic resinsFEB49%14%37%67.5
Passive electronics FEB30%5%65%62.2
SteelFEB31%9%60%60.9
Industrial machineryFEB23%3%74%60.3
SemiconductorsFEB25%11%64%57.1
ComputersFEB17%21%62%47.6
* Diffusion index registers movement; 50 = no change, above 50 = growth, below 50 = contraction.
Source: purchasingdata.com

BLUETOOTH IS CHEAPER

The short-range wireless technology called Bluetooth, those little blue-light devices that connect headsets (or earsets) to a cellular telephone or an iPod, are very popular—and getting cheaper. Sales of Bluetooth chips doubled last year, and prices have dropped to below $3 from their peak of $5 a couple of years ago. About a quarter of the handsets sold last year came with embedded Bluetooth capability. This year it will be a third and, by 2008, will be half. That's about when major producer CSR of Cambridge, England, sees the price of Bluetooth chips at or below $1.

NAND FLASH DECLINES

Expect nand flash memory prices to fall through the first quarter. Prices declined by as much as 16% through February—and will continue to slide. The price of a single gigabit NAND flash microchip dropped from an average of $6.26 in mid-January to $5.76 in mid-February, says researcher DRAMeXchange. Price tags also declined for NAND chips as large as 8 gigabits, which have dropped by as much as 16% to $31. While demand for flash is strong, capacity continues to be greater.

DRAM PRICES COULD DROP

The current surplus of nand flash memory is expected to reduce prices of DRAM devices in the near future, according to electronics research firm iSuppli. Contract prices for DRAM chips have been rising this year, as producers try to recoup last year's 5% revenue decline. But, iSuppli analyst Nam Hyung Kim believes the DRAM recovery could be short-lived because of imminent oversupply. Note: Samsung, Hynix, Elpida Memory and Infineon Technologies all have announced plans to increase DRAM shipments this year despite an uncertain demand environment.

GPS COMPONENTS DECLINING

When prices for consumer-electronic products slip enough to make them hot-selling mass-market items, tags of the key components and systems used in those products typically follow that price slide. Case in point: the cost of the basic GPS (global positioning system) chipset declined steadily as the portable satellite-based navigation devices plunged in price to $500 from $1,000-plus a few years ago. Buyers should expect key components of GPS—from miniaturized communications chips to small LCD screens—to continue their downward price slide.

SWITCHES WILL TURN UP

Buyers can expect switch suppliers to push for 2-3% price increases for the rest of the year because of rising material costs. However, stiff competition will likely result in tags rising no more than 1.5%. Any price increases will be short-lived because of tough competition in Asia and from efforts by large OEMs and electronics manufacturing services providers to leverage their global purchases.

POWER ASICS HEAD SOUTH

Prices for application specific integrated circuits (ASICs) used for power management will drop over the next four years. Buyers can expect the average price to fall from about $1.04 to 90¢, says researcher iSuppli. ASICs used in power management represent about 23% of the total power management chip market. Use is growing because of the proliferation of battery-operated portable electronics equipment and because power requirements in computers are growing.

CHIPBOND CUTS TEST GEAR

Chipbond technology may cut prices for its integrated circuit testing and packaging products in March or April. This is an attempt to stabilize market pricing for LCD monitors using thin-film transistor-based technology for IC testing and packaging. Purchasing is reported to have bottomed out last year, but demand is picking up, according to Chipbond and such other suppliers as Novatek Microelectronics and NEC.

TYCO SEEKS REDUCTIONS

Tyco electronics is asking its suppliers to trim prices so it can generate price reductions for buyers of its electronic connectors and other products. Eric J. Choltco, director of procurement-Americas, asked suppliers in early February for immediate and permanent price reductions of 10% and another 10% in reductions in the next two years. Connector analyst Bishop and Associates says Tyco Electronics is "going down the food chain" to extract savings to meet reduced-price demands from their customers.

LCDS ARE GETTING CHEAPER

Buyers are embracing larger LCD flat-panel computer screens as their price tags have dropped sharply. The average cost of a 17-in. LCD screen fell to $273 in 2005 from $889 in 2001. Worldwide sales of LCDs jumped 57% to 93.8 million units last year, while shipments of traditional cathode ray tube monitors fell 31% to 41.8 million, according to electronics research firm iSuppli.

 

4

WHAT IT MEANS: In the most recent Purchasing survey, buyers said they paid more in February for four of the 17 product categories monitored for purchasingdata.com.

With copper cathode setting price records, high-tech buyers may see components impacted.

Production improvements have stabilized the pace of semiconductor price increases.

Odds at odds

BenQ, Smasung and other Asian suppliers have reduced prices by 12-15% for the various models of optical disc drives (ODDS), according to various sources.

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