Supply of containerized shipping services will catch up with demand—but not until next year. Clarkson Research Studies expects demand to exceed supply by 1.4% in 2005, but says growth in supply will outpace demand by 2.5% in 2006. And Drewery Shipping Consultants is predicting that demand will outpace supply by 2.9% this year, up from its prediction in the first quarter that growth would be less than 1%. For 2006, Drewery is expecting supply to surpass demand by 4.1%.

"The supply and demand balance should still remain at reasonably healthy levels (in 2006), though the underlying trend will then clearly be negative," Drewery said in its latest quarterly report.

Of course, individual lanes and markets will see spikes. Containerized exports from China to the West Coast will increase by 50% in the next five years, says Vince Sullivan, Midwest sales manager for the Port of Tacoma, Wash., in a recent news report, adding that Tacoma's containerized cargo trade with Asia is forecast to grow by 35% this year over 2004.

dhannon@reedbusiness.com