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Few buyers expect component inflation

(Buyers' 90-day price expectations)

Staff -- Purchasing, 4/20/2006

UP DOWN SAME INDEX
Multi-layer printed circuit boards 30% 0% 70% 65.0
Pushbutton switches 27% 0% 73% 63.6
Zener diode 25% 0% 75% 62.5
Network resistors 22% 0% 78% 61.1
Logic: Bipolar 20% 0% 80% 60.0
MPU: 32-bit 20% 0% 80% 60.0
MPU: 16-bit 20% 0% 80% 60.0
SRAM memory: 4 Mb 17% 0% 83% 58.3
Logic: CMOS 17% 0% 83% 58.3
Analog digital converters 17% 0% 83% 58.3
MOSFETs 14% 0% 86% 57.1
Small-signal transistors 22% 11% 67% 55.6
Film capacitors 11% 0% 89% 55.6
Solid state relays 11% 0% 89% 55.6
General purpose relays 18% 9% 73% 54.5
Switcher power supplies 18% 18% 64% 50.0
Flash memory: 32 Mb 14% 14% 72% 50.0
Index registers movement; 50 = no change, above 50 = growth, below 50 = contraction.
Source: www.purchasingdata.com

NAND TAGS ERODE

Spot prices for NAND flash memory keep falling. Prices have fallen by 50% this year with 2 gigabit (Gb) and 4 Gb devices having the sharpest price declines of 63%, according to DRAMeXchange, a market intelligence provider. Price erosion likely will continue. Reason: Capacity is expanding due to competition among such major flash manufacturers as Samsung and Toshiba/Sandisk as well as the new Intel/Micron joint venture. Suppliers will add more flash capacity in late 2006 or early 2007. That should result in continued overcapacity, which will mean lower prices.

CONNECTOR TAGS STABLE

Expect price stability to return to connectors. Many connector manufacturers say they have increased prices 3-7% for select products because of increasing costs for copper, gold and polymers. Suppliers aren't sure if prices will increase later in the year. Odds are they won't because of stiff competition, especially in Asia.

SILVER TAGS ARE UP

The daily market price of silver used in jewelry, electronics and photography surpassed $11/ounce in the waning days of March for the first time since 1983. As investors keep betting that precious metals will continue to outperform stocks and bonds, silver has surged 57% in the past year, reaching a 23-year high. Mexico's Penoles, the world's top refined silver producer, just raised its 2006 outlook for average silver prices to $10/oz.

ANALOG PRICES TO DROP

Analog integrated circuits will fall this year despite strong demand for the chips by the computer and telecommunications industries. The average price for an analog chip will drop from about 47¢ to 45¢, according to researcher IC Insights. Competition is stiff with many suppliers fighting for market share. Consider: Texas Instruments is the top analog chip supplier with about 14% of the market followed closely by STMicroelectronics, Infineon, Philips, Analog Devices and National.

LNG PRICES ARE LOWER, BUT …

Liquefied natural gas prices have been receding rapidly lately toward $5 per 1,000 cubic feet. Demand was slowed by temperatures well above average this past winter, producing an accelerated return of Gulf of Mexico production and storage levels. Estimates of natural gas reserves in the U.S. surpassed 197 trillion cubic feet at the end of 2005, marking their highest level in more than 20 years, the American Gas Association reports. Still, the Energy Information Administration cautions buyers that significant risk about explosive pricing back above $7 still exists "given the high degree of price volatility in U.S. natural gas markets."

SEMI PRICES ARE INFLATING

Two pricing-growth years are probable for semiconductor makers in 2006 and 2007, according to research firm Future Horizons. First quarter data already shows an 8% increase in prices with further increases expected in coming months. "There are shortages in the materials supply chain from raw polysilicon through packaging materials," says the report, which adds that "if these trends continue, 2006 will exit on allocation" and additional double-digit price hikes may occur in 2007.

PRICES DROP FOR HANDSETS

Nokia, the world's largest cellular telephone maker, has raised its forecast for world sales growth even though its newest handset models are priced lower than previous versions. "Nokia estimates that in 2006, the mobile device market volume will increase globally 15% or more from our estimate of 795 million units in 2005," chief executive, Jorma Ollila, recently told a shareholders' annual meeting. Nokia previously had forecast 10% growth.

IT'S ALWAYS ABOUT THE PRICE

Lower prices are key to the purchasing growth of laptop and notebook personal computers, says Richard Shim, senior research analyst at IDC in Framingham, Mass. "Declining prices, improving performance and battery life, and wide screen displays in notebooks are luring new buyers and upgrades, while stunting desktop PC growth to a trickle." As notebook prices continue to decline, the pace of purchasing is bringing closer the day that notebooks outship desktops in the U.S., he says.

 

Reader feedback: Beware of forecasts

Analysts are at odds on the price track ahead for ceramic capacitors; some say up, some say down. Here's the reaction from a buyer at an independent Massachusetts distributor of integrated circuits and other high-tech commodities:

"Analysts should be at odds on where pricing will be because no one should know right now. RoHS, non-RoHS, date code restrictions, no restriction, excess pockets of inventory worldwide—these factors can dramatically skew results. If we have learned anything by now in this industry, it's that analysts can analyze all they want—but please stay away from predictions. It's like predicting the weather in New England."

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