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Buyers worry most about metals, freight and paper

(Buyers' 90-day price expectations)

Staff -- Purchasing, 5/4/2006

Up Down Same Index
Copper & brass 76% 0% 24% 88.0
Transportation costs 67% 6% 27% 80.4
Paper & paperboard 51% 3% 46% 73.8
Energy products 64% 17% 19% 73.4
Fabricated metals 47% 3% 50% 71.7
Corrugated containers 52% 9% 39% 71.5
Aluminum 49% 6% 45% 71.2
Steel 47% 8% 45% 69.6
Industrial machinery 35% 0% 65% 67.6
Tooling 36% 5% 59% 65.9
Plastic resins 39% 11% 50% 64.5
Molded plastics 36% 6% 58% 64.5
Passive electronics 26% 5% 69% 60.5
Inorganic chemicals 28% 8% 64% 60.0
Semiconductors 25% 6% 69% 59.4
Organic chemicals 25% 8% 67% 58.3
Computers 13% 17% 70% 47.8
Index registers movement; 50 = no change, above 50 = growth, below 50 = contraction.
Source: www.purchasingdata.com

INFLATION HAS SLOWED

U.S. wholesale prices grew in March at their fastest pace in three months (0.5%). But, for the so-called core index excluding food and energy, the growth pace slowed even more (0.1%). For the 12 months ended in March, the Labor Department's overall producer price index climbed 3.5% on an unadjusted basis, marking the slowest 12-month increase since September 2004. The easing of overall price pressures for nonenergy raw materials means the core index for finished goods may even drop in April.

RAIL COSTS MAY RISE

Railcars are in great demand for carrying everything from coal to sea containers, and rail freight rates are the highest they've been in decades, according to BMO Nesbitt Burns analyst Randy Cousins, who forecasts continued strong pricing growth ahead by North American railroads. Reason: Rail demand will stay high through 2006, while there is no incremental supply.

URANIUM VIEW IS BULLISH

Uranium spot prices have surged almost fourfold in the past three years to $41/lb as more countries turn to nuclear power generation after prices for coal, gas and oil rose and pressures increased to cut emissions of greenhouse gases, blamed for global warming. Spot uranium prices are now at a 26-year high, and analyst Kevin Bambrough at Sprott Asset Management in Toronto believes uranium prices will head higher in the coming months.

COPPER UP BUT DUE FOR FALL

Copper pricing "is likely to become an increasingly volatile market," says analyst William Adams at BaseMetals.com. He bases this premise on expectations for a supply surplus this year in the face of declining demand and excess investment that has driven late-April commodity exchange pricing close to $2.95/lb. Since early March, "copper prices have accelerated at an increasingly faster pace," says Adams, so "it should not be too long before the market starts to unwind."

GAS PRICES CONTINUE TO SURGE

Energy department forecasters expect the price of a gallon of regular-grade gasoline in this summer's heavy-driving season to reach $2.62, up 25¢/gallon over last summer. Prices at the pump have been surging since February, when the average price was $2.25/gal and were averaging $2.80 when this edition went to press. High oil prices, high demand for ethanol additives and rules on low-sulfur fuel all have played a role in the recent surge.

ALUMINUM SHEET UP 18%

Spot-market prices for commercial-grade flat-rolled mill products have increased by as much as 18% since January 2005. After a slight decline in February 2006, purchases of aluminum mill products surged in March. Strong demand and robust ingot pricing is increasing aluminum prices in the near-term, says analyst Michael Gambardella of J.P. Morgan Securities in New York.

ZINC ATTAINS LOFTY LEVELS

The world price for zinc has more than doubled this year to $1.38/lb in late April. That's not because of strong global purchasing from steelmakers. The price explosion has happened because zinc "has become the darling of the base metal market" and the subject of vigorous investment by fund managers, says analyst Jon Bergtheil at J.P. Morgan Securities in London. Bergtheil insists that zinc is at a price level that cannot be sustainable from a supply and/or demand perspective "but which is perfectly sustainable while it remains one of the key recipients of funds-flow."

WITH CAPACITY UP, MDI OFF

Although demand remains strong, spot prices for MDI (methylene diphenyl diisocyanate) resin have slipped and stayed off the 2004 peak, says Merrill Lynch analyst Robyn Coombs. New capacity has been coming on-stream and latest market data puts MDI with its benzene surcharge at $1.15/lb as compared with a cyclical high point of $1.29 in August 2004.

GOLD IS SETTING RECORDS

Gold futures pushed to their strongest level since December 1980 when they traded at $616.50/oz on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange in late April. The price was so high because geopolitical tensions over Iran's nuclear program and a tumble in the U.S. dollar fueled speculative buying. "There are increased geopolitical tensions, mainly from Iran," causing the issues, writes investment analyst Peter Grandich.

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