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Chinese aluminum consumption growth drives the world market

By Staff -- Purchasing, 7/14/2007

Chinese aluminum consumption continues to "stand out" against the rest of the world with the Asian country still driving industry fundamentals, says a report by Norwegian supplier Norsk Hydro.

Noting expectations for even stronger economic growth in China this year than in 2006, Norsk Hydro sees global aluminum consumption growth this year around 9% in 2007. China is expected to contribute about 80% of the increase. Primary aluminum consumption, excluding China, is expected to grow about 2.5% this year from 2006. Consumption growth in Europe is expected to slow to about 3%, while U.S. consumption is expected to decline by about 1.5%.

On the demand side, Norsk Hydro believes a combination of high London Metal Exchange prices (still in excess of $1.20/lb in June) and relatively stable short-term alumina prices are apparently leading to high smelter capacity utilization in China. "Production in China is expected to grow by more than 30% for 2007 compared with 2006," Norsk Hydro adds. Global production growth excluding China is estimated at about 5.5% in 2007.

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