The global nonferrous metals demand surge is part of a six-year-old world boom in demand for manufacturing commodities and will stay robust enough in 2008 to keep prices elevated, analysts say, even if the U.S. economy goes into a short-term recession. Many economists argue that demand overseas will keep base metal prices high and compound the economic pain for North American businesses by forcing them to continue paying a premium.

The demand surge is being paced with no end in sight by the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and, especially, China. China's economy is sufficiently decoupled from the U.S. to keep metal demand growth buoyant in the medium to longer term, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. "A recession in the U.S. won't show much impact on metal demand growth since China now is the primary driver for metal demand," say analysts at Merrill Lynch. However, the commodity researchers at Standard Chartered Bank see prices of base metals slightly below 2007 record highs because they expect a slowdown in the global economic growth rate in the second half.

Meanwhile, CEO Tom Albanese at mining giant Rio Tinto agrees a recession in the U.S. will do little to slow the Chinese economic juggernaut driving the commodities demand boom and pricing supercycle. Albanese believes China still will grow at about 10% in 2008 even if the U.S. went into recession. He believes the world boom in demand for natural resources is structural rather than cyclical in nature.