Aluminum supply may exceed demand by a million metric tons this year, down from a previous forecast of 1.4 million tons as power shortages reduce global output, but still large enough to reduce world prices slightly for ingot. The consensus forecast for aluminum is $1.19/lb this year, down from $1.21 in 2007.

Bloomberg reports that blackouts probably will cut production in China, Tajikistan, South Africa and Mozambique by 650,000 tons this year, forecasts Paul Robinson, manager of aluminum research at London-based CRU Group. Production in South Africa and Mozambique alone will probably be reduced by 50,000 tons in the first six months of this year because of an inability of power companies to supply sufficient electricity, Robinson says.