What's Happening In High-Tech Markets
Staff -- Purchasing, 5/17/2001
- Researchers still see future purchasing built around electronic commerce. New long-term forecast from Gartner Dataquest suggests that business-to-business online sales will rise from $919 billion this year to $5.9 trillion by 2004 and then to $8.5 trillion by 2005. Just last year, Dataquest had predicted that B2B Net sales soon would account for 7% of global trade—$7.3 trillion—in 2004 and $9.9 trillion in 2005. Global economic downturn has been a factor in reducing the forecast. However, research director Lauren Shu insists that companies will increasingly automate their purchasing operations, pushing online transactions to 6.7% of global B2B sales in 2005.
- The semiconductor equipment down cycle will end with 2001, says analyst Shekhar Pramanick at Prudential Securities. He estimates that semiconductor capital spending will fall 30% this year, but believes orders will bottom in third quarter and begin a rebound in 2002. He suggests this year's interest rate cuts will translate into renewed economic expansion and will have positive impact on next year's equipment buying plans. Atop that, he says the move to 0.13-micron process technology, copper interconnects, and 300mm (12-inch) wafers "will provide for significant capital spending and lay the framework for the next up cycle in semiconductor capital spending."
- Purchasing of electronic procurement software, the applications that power business-to-business online buying, will hit $9.7 billion in 2004, up from $2.1 billion in 2000, forecasts IDC, the research arm of International Data Group. According to research manager Albert Pang, the market's growth will reflect new software suppliers and expanded online purchasing.
- Get ready for advanced telematics. Vertical Wireless Associates (VWA) predicts that by end-2003 more than a million vehicles will come equipped with next-generation telematics that network audio, video, communication and computing devices. Advances in voice-recognition technology will break through safety and ease-of-use barriers, transforming onboard telematics from technological curiosity to mainstream set of applications. System prices—currently ranging from $500 to $2,000—are expected to drop considerably. That's why the number of fleets considering the purchase of onboard telematics is twice as high as it was three years ago, according to VWA.
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